Odd Lots

These days, everyone is talking about high interest rates across the rich, developed world, while warning of eventual fiscal disaster. But we may have gotten an early glimpse of this anxiety in October 2022, when then-UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her mini-budget that spooked the gilt market. Well today, rates at the long end of the British yield curve are even higher. So what's going on? Why all this angst now about UK fiscal sustainability and the economy itself? In this episode, we speak with Liz Truss about what she learned during her brief time as the PM. She talks about the political reality of fiscal consolidation, and how difficult it is on both the tax and spending side. And we also discuss what her economic vision was really all about, had she not been forced from the position so quickly. In addition, we talk about the general state of politics, the media, and free speech in the UK.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on August 25, when Trump posted that he intended to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee. According to our guest, Columbia Law Professor Lev Menand, this is a big deal that has created an immediate crisis. The Trump administration's argument is that it's firing Lisa Cook "for cause" due to allegations (and these are just allegations at this point) that she committed mortgage fraud. As Lev argues, these allegations alone can't justify the removal of someone in this position. We talk through the legal implications, the immediate path ahead, and what may ultimately be Trump's real aim when it comes to pressuring the Fed.Read more:Trump Moves to Fire Fed’s Cook, Setting Up Historic FightPowell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor MarketsOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise of central bank independence is becoming a live question again. And without central bank independence, almost all of the more academic discussions feel like a waste of time. That makes for a surreal environment. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who now serves as President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He's the author of a recent Foreign Affairs article titled, "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World." We talk about the shifting tectonic plates occurring domestically and internationally, what he sees as the folly of Trump's approach to trade and international relations, and how that intersects with the discourse among Central Bankers.Read more:What’s at Stake in the Fight Over Fed IndependenceFormer ECB Chief Says ‘Illusion’ of EU as a Global Power DashedOnly http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightforward. There are signs of labor market softening. But also there are reasons to be concerned that inflation pressure is building yet again. In times like this, the playbook is less obvious. On this episode, recorded at the Jackson Hole EconomicSymposium, Barkin walks us through how he's thinking about the economy right now.More: Fed’s Jackson Hole Points to a Hard Road Ahead for PowellOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This is noteworthy because in general markets are expecting rate cuts to come soon, and also Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, put more weight on risks to the labor market. In this episode recorded at the conference, Goolsbee explains why he has some concerns about whether the inflation embers have been fully stamped out (he's particularly concerned by what he's seeing in the services realm), and why he has relatively more confidence that the labor market is in good shape.Read more:Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor MarketsWall Street Got the Rally Signals From Powell It Was Hoping ForOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.