本集介紹
2021.10.26 國際新聞導讀-蘇丹發生政變，軍方與文人政府糾紛衝突已久、美國對與伊朗恢復核武談判產生希望、伊朗將部署最新防空飛彈到敘利亞對抗以色列空襲、巴勒斯坦總統阿巴斯將訪問莫斯科、八解內部有解除與以色列安全聯繫與所有簽署協議的呼聲、澳洲猶太人在經歷漫長封城鎖國後之感想、小行星撞擊地球帶來生命
蘇丹“軍事政變”引發擔憂——分析
這對該地區很重要，也可能影響蘇丹與以色列的關係，因為蘇丹是在亞伯拉罕協議之後加入正常化道路的國家之一。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
2021 年 10 月 25 日 22:52
2019 年 7 月 18 日，蘇丹抗議者在蘇丹喀土穆的綠色廣場舉行集會紀念倒下的抗議者時高喊口號和揮舞旗幟
（圖片來源：路透社/ MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH）
廣告
在該國緊張局勢和抗議活動加劇之際，軍隊已部署在蘇丹首都喀土穆。令人擔憂的是，一場軍事政變正在進行中。網上流傳的圖片顯示了逮捕和其他事件。天空新聞阿拉伯和其他阿拉伯頻道報導了軍隊的存在。
這對該地區很重要，也可能影響蘇丹與以色列的關係，因為它是在亞伯拉罕協議之後加入正常化道路的國家之一。
據報導，總理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克被軟禁。美聯社稱，至少有五名政府官員被軟禁，其中包括總理。阿拉比亞說，喀土穆周圍的橋樑和道路被關閉。
Al-Monitor 的 Jared Szuba 指出，在美國非洲之角問題特使 Jeffrey Feltman 會見 Abdel Fattah Burhan 和 Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo（被稱為“Hemedti”）的第二天，就出現了明顯政變的報導。這兩人自 2019 年以來一直擔任主權委員會的負責人和副主席，這是在前蘇丹奧馬爾·巴希爾政府垮台後設立的關鍵軍事和領導職位。
布爾汗成為蘇丹的領導人，哈姆多克成為總理。這個概念是蘇丹將走向文官統治。然而，在舊的穆斯林兄弟會政權的支持者和那些想要更世俗民主的人之間，該國的勢力繼續在表面下鬥爭。
蘇丹總理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克於 2019 年 9 月 3 日在蘇丹喀土穆與德國外交部長海科·馬斯舉行的聯合新聞發布會上發表講話（圖片來源：REUTERS/MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH）
在該地區，蘇丹在試圖轉向文官統治方面是一個局外人。阿拉伯之春之後，文官統治的許多希望都破滅了。突尼斯確實向民主過渡，但埃及等其他國家遭受了混亂和政變，變得更加專制。敘利亞仍在遭受內戰。
敵對勢力——比如支持穆斯林兄弟會的土耳其和反對它的沙特阿拉伯——導致了整個地區的競爭，從利比亞到突尼斯。
其他國家受到伊朗支持的試圖奪取也門、黎巴嫩和伊拉克權力的團體的影響。君主制繼續在海灣地區和約旦蓬勃發展。
因此，蘇丹不僅貧窮，而且還可能成為一個充滿為該地區性質而進行的潛在斗爭的國家。儘管位於非洲之角，但它仍被視為一個阿拉伯國家，並在阿拉伯民族主義和宗教政治中發揮了作用。在過去的十年裡，土耳其一直在尋求加強其在那裡的作用。埃及現在希望在蘇丹有重要盟友。
據 Al-Ain 媒體報導，在逮捕消息公佈後，蘇丹專業協會呼籲其支持者走上街頭。路透社援引一名目擊者的話說，蘇丹首都喀土穆的互聯網服務中斷。
報告稱：“隨著過渡時期軍事和民事夥伴之間的爭端升級，蘇丹正處於嚴重的政治危機之中，由於各方都堅持自己的立場，因此缺乏解決方案。”在艾因。
“軍方及其支持者連續第十天在總統府前紮營，呼籲解散過渡政府，組建其他國家權力機構，解散兄弟會解散委員會，擴大參與執政聯盟的基礎，”它說，“而自由與變革聯盟拒絕這些要求，並認為總統府前的運動是企圖攻擊革命。”
報導還指出，事件發生在美國特使訪問之後，哈姆多克媒體顧問的家遭到軍隊襲擊。10 月 2 日，費爾特曼也在蘇丹。
“在與總理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克……內閣成員、主權委員會主席阿卜杜勒法塔赫·布爾汗、主權委員會成員和其他政治利益攸關方的會晤中，費爾特曼特使表達了美國對持續政治和經濟支持的承諾隨著蘇丹過渡的進行，”美國國務院表示。
“他還強調，這種支持取決於蘇丹是否遵守 2019 年憲法宣言和 2020 年朱巴和平協議中確立的商定過渡秩序。
“偏離這條道路和未能達到關鍵基準將使蘇丹與美國的雙邊關係面臨風險，包括美國的重大援助，以及安全合作以實現蘇丹武裝部隊現代化的前景以及美國在國際金融機構中的支持以及債務減免。”
10 月 24 日，美國之音報導了費爾特曼最近的第二次訪問。它指出，數十萬人一直在抗議文官統治。
美國駐喀土穆大使館表示，美國“特使周六在與蘇丹執政委員會主席和總理的會談中強調了華盛頓對蘇丹民主過渡到文官統治的支持”。
在美國之音的報導中，據說費爾特曼“敦促各方重新承諾共同努力執行蘇丹的憲法宣言，該宣言是在 2018-2019 年起義導致總統奧馬爾·巴希爾下台後簽署的。”
費爾特曼會見了將軍和主權委員會的負責人。
報告稱：“在 9 月的軍事政變未遂之後，現在分享權力的文職和軍事領導人之間的緊張局勢飆升，軍方表示已挫敗。”
Sudan ‘military coup’ sparks concern - analysis
This is important for the region and could also affect Sudan’s relations with Israel because Sudan was one of the countries that joined the path to normalization in the wake of the Abraham Accords.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
OCTOBER 25, 2021 22:52
Sudanese protesters shout slogans and wave flags during a rally honouring fallen protesters at the Green Square in Khartoum, Sudan July 18, 2019
(photo credit: REUTERS/ MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH)
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The military has been deployed in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum amid rising tensions in the country and protests. Concerns are that a military coup is underway. Pictures circulating online show arrests and other incidents. Sky News Arabia and other Arabic channels have reported the presence of the military.
This is important for the region, and could also affect Sudan’s relations with Israel because it was one of the countries that joined the path to normalization in the wake of the Abraham Accords.
According to reports, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok was placed under house arrest. The Associated Press said that at least five government officials were put under house arrest, including the prime minister. Bridges and roads around Khartoum were closed, Al Arabiya said.
Jared Szuba at Al-Monitor noted that the report of the apparent coup comes a day after Jeffrey Feltman, US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, had met with Abdel Fattah Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti.” These two have since 2019 been the head and deputy of the Sovereignty Council, the key military and leadership position created after the fall of the former Sudanese government of Omar al-Bashir.
Burhan became the leader of Sudan and Hamdok his prime minister. The concept was that Sudan would move toward civilian rule. However, forces in the country have continued to struggle under the surface, between supporters of the old Muslim Brotherhood regime and those who wanted a more secular democracy.
Sudan Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok speaks during joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas in Khartoum, Sudan September 3, 2019 (credit: REUTERS/ MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH)
In the region, Sudan was an outlier in trying to shift toward civilian rule. After the Arab Spring, many of the hopes for civilian rule were dashed. Tunisia did transition to democracy, but other countries like Egypt suffered chaos and coup and became more authoritarian. Syria is still suffering a civil war.
Rival powers – like Turkey, which backs the Muslim Brotherhood, and Saudi Arabia, which opposes it – have led to contests throughout the region, from Libya to Tunisia.
Other countries have suffered from Iranian-backed groups that tried to seize power in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. Monarchies have continued to thrive in the Gulf and in Jordan.
Sudan, therefore, was left not only poor but also potentially as a state full of underlying struggles for the nature of the region. It is seen as an Arab state, despite being in the Horn of Africa, and has played a role in Arab nationalist and religious politics. Turkey had sought to increase its role there in the last decade; Egypt now wants key allies in Sudan.
According to Al-Ain media, the Sudanese Professional Association has called its supporters to the streets after news of the arrests was publicized. Reuters quoted a witness that Internet services were disrupted in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum.
“Sudan is living in the midst of a severe political crisis following the escalation of the dispute between the military and civilian partners of the transitional period, amid the absence of a solution horizon in light of each party’s adherence to its position,” the report said at Al-Ain.
“The military and their supporters, camping in front of the presidential palace for the tenth day in a row, are calling for the dissolution of the transitional government, the formation of other national competencies, the dissolution of the Brotherhood’s dismantling committee, and the expansion of the base of participation in the ruling coalition,” it said, “while the Alliance for Freedom and Change rejects these demands, and considers the movement in front of the presidential palace as attempts to attack the revolution.”
Reports also noted that the incident took place after the visit of the US envoy, and that the home of Hamdok’s media adviser was stormed by troops. On October 2, Feltman was also in Sudan.
“In his meetings with Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok… members of the Cabinet, Sovereign Council Chairman Abdelfattah al-Burhan, members of the Sovereign Council and other political stakeholders, Special Envoy Feltman expressed the United States’ dedication to continued political and economic support as Sudan’s transition proceeds,” the US State Department said.
“He also underscored that such support depends on Sudan’s adherence to the agreed transitional order as established in the 2019 Constitutional Declaration and the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement.
“Deviation from this path and failure to meet key benchmarks will place at risk Sudan’s bilateral relationship with the United States, including significant US assistance, as well as the prospect of security cooperation to modernize the Sudanese armed forces and US support in the International Financial Institutions and for debt relief.”
On October 24, Voice of America reported the second recent Feltman visit. It noted that hundreds of thousands of people had been protesting for civilian rule.
The US “envoy underlined Washington’s support for a democratic transition to civilian rule in Sudan on Saturday during talks with the head of its ruling council and the prime minister,” said the US embassy in Khartoum.
In the VOA report, Feltman was said to have “urged all sides to recommit to working together to implement Sudan’s constitutional declaration, signed after a 2018-2019 uprising that resulted in the removal of president Omar al-Bashir.”
Feltman had met with the generals and the head of the Sovereignty Council.
“Tensions between the civilian and military leaders who now share power have soared in the wake of an attempted military coup in September, which the army said it had foiled,” said the report.
蘇丹政變會損害以色列關係嗎？- 分析
在這種情況下，以色列沒有好的選擇，只能觀望，不要被視為對正在發生的事情的黨派支持。
作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN
2021 年 10 月 25 日 22:00
蘇丹主權委員會主席阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·布爾汗。
（圖片來源：維基百科）
廣告
在該國緊張局勢和抗議活動加劇之際，軍隊已部署在蘇丹首都喀土穆。令人擔憂的是，一場軍事政變正在進行中。網上流傳的圖片顯示了逮捕和其他事件。天空新聞阿拉伯和其他阿拉伯頻道報導了軍隊的存在。
這對該地區很重要，也可能影響蘇丹與以色列的關係，因為它是在亞伯拉罕協議之後加入正常化道路的國家之一。
據報導，總理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克被軟禁。美聯社稱，至少有五名政府官員被軟禁，其中包括總理。阿拉比亞說，喀土穆周圍的橋樑和道路被關閉。
Al-Monitor 的賈里德·蘇巴 (Jared Szuba) 指出，在美國非洲之角特使杰弗裡·費爾特曼 (Jeffrey Feltman) 會見了阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·布爾汗 (Abdel Fattah Burhan) 和穆罕默德·哈姆丹·達加洛 (Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo) 之後的第二天，就發生了明顯的政變。這兩個人自 2019 年以來一直擔任主權委員會的主席和副主席，這是在前蘇丹奧馬爾·巴希爾政府垮台後設立的關鍵軍事和領導職位。
布爾汗成為蘇丹的領導人，哈姆多克成為總理。這個概念是蘇丹將走向文官統治。然而，在舊的穆斯林兄弟會政權的支持者和那些想要更世俗民主的人之間，該國的勢力繼續在表面下鬥爭。
2021 年 6 月 3 日，蘇丹人在蘇丹喀土穆參加了反對快速支援部隊的遊行，他們指責後者襲擊了在 2019 年革命期間在國防部外紮營的抗議者。（圖片來源：REUTERS/MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH )
在該地區，蘇丹是一個試圖轉向文官統治的局外人。阿拉伯之春之後，文官統治的許多希望都破滅了。突尼斯確實向民主過渡，但埃及等其他國家遭受了混亂和政變，變得更加專制。敘利亞仍在遭受內戰。
敵對勢力——比如支持穆斯林兄弟會的土耳其和反對它的沙特阿拉伯——導致了整個地區的競爭，從利比亞到突尼斯。其他國家受到伊朗支持的試圖奪取也門、黎巴嫩和伊拉克權力的團體的影響。君主制繼續在海灣地區和約旦蓬勃發展。
因此，蘇丹不僅貧窮，而且可能成為一個充滿為該地區性質而進行的潛在斗爭的國家。儘管位於非洲之角，但它仍被視為一個阿拉伯國家，並在阿拉伯民族主義和宗教政治中發揮了作用。在過去的十年裡，土耳其一直在尋求加強其在那裡的作用。埃及現在希望在蘇丹有重要盟友。
據 Al-Ain 媒體報導，在逮捕消息公佈後，蘇丹專業協會呼籲其支持者走上街頭。路透社援引一名目擊者的話說，蘇丹首都喀土穆的互聯網服務中斷。
報告稱：“隨著過渡時期軍事和民事夥伴之間的爭端升級，蘇丹正處於嚴重的政治危機之中，由於各方都堅持自己的立場，因此缺乏解決方案。”在艾因。
“軍方及其支持者連續第十天在總統府前紮營，呼籲解散過渡政府，組建其他國家權力機構，解散兄弟會解散委員會並擴大執政聯盟的參與基礎，”它說，“而自由與變革聯盟拒絕這些要求，並將總統府前的運動視為攻擊革命的企圖。”
報導還指出，事件發生在美國特使訪問之後，哈姆多克媒體顧問的家遭到軍隊襲擊。10 月 2 日，費爾特曼也在蘇丹。
“在與總理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克……內閣成員、主權委員會主席阿卜杜勒法塔赫·布爾汗、主權委員會成員和其他政治利益攸關方的會晤中，費爾特曼特使表達了美國對持續政治和經濟支持的承諾隨著蘇丹過渡的進行，”美國國務院表示。
“他還強調，這種支持取決於蘇丹是否遵守 2019 年憲法宣言和 2020 年朱巴和平協議中確立的商定過渡秩序，”它說。
“偏離這條道路和未能達到關鍵基準將使蘇丹與美國的雙邊關係面臨風險，包括美國的重要援助，以及安全合作以實現蘇丹武裝部隊現代化的前景以及美國在國際金融機構的支持以及債務減免。”
10 月 24 日，美國之音報導了費爾特曼最近的第二次訪問。它指出，數十萬人一直在抗議文官統治。
美國駐喀土穆大使館表示，美國特使周六在與蘇丹執政委員會主席和總理的會談中強調了華盛頓對蘇丹民主過渡到文官統治的支持。
在美國之音的報導中，據說費爾特曼“敦促各方重新承諾共同努力執行蘇丹的憲法宣言，該宣言是在 2018-2019 年起義導致總統奧馬爾·巴希爾下台後簽署的。”
費爾特曼會見了將軍和主權委員會的負責人。“在 9 月的軍事政變未遂之後，現在共享權力的文職和軍事領導人之間的緊張局勢飆升，軍方表示已挫敗。”
Will Sudan coup harm Israeli ties? - analysis
Israel has no good choices in this instance, except to wait and see and not be viewed as partisan to what is taking place.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
OCTOBER 25, 2021 22:00
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan.
(photo credit: WIKIPEDIA)
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The military has been deployed in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum amid rising tensions in the country and protests. Concerns are that a military coup is underway. Pictures circulating online show arrests and other incidents. Sky News Arabia and other Arabic channels have reported the presence of the military.
This is important for the region and could also affect Sudan’s relations with Israel because it was one of the countries that joined the path to normalization in the wake of the Abraham Accords.
According to the reports, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok was placed under house arrest. The Associated Press said that at least five government officials were put under house arrest, including the prime minister. Bridges and roads around Khartoum were closed, Al Arabiya said.
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Jared Szuba at Al-Monitor noted that the report of the apparent coup comes a day after Jeffrey Feltman, US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, had met with Abdel Fattah Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti”. These two men have been the head and deputy of the Sovereignty Council since 2019, the key military and leadership position created after the fall of the former Sudanese government of Omar al-Bashir.
Burhan became the leader of Sudan and Hamdok his prime minister. The concept was that Sudan would move toward civilian rule. However, forces in the country have continued to struggle under the surface, between supporters of the old Muslim Brotherhood regime and those who wanted a more secular democracy.
Sudanese take part in a march against the Rapid Support Forces, who they blame for a raid on protesters who had camped outside the defense ministry during the 2019 revolution, in Khartoum, Sudan, June 3, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH)
IN THE REGION, Sudan was an outlier in trying to shift toward civilian rule. After the Arab Spring, many of the hopes for civilian rule were dashed. Tunisia did transition to democracy, but other countries like Egypt suffered chaos and coup and became more authoritarian. Syria is still suffering a civil war.
Rival powers – like Turkey which backs the Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi Arabia which opposes it – have led to contests throughout the region, from Libya to Tunisia. Other countries have suffered from Iranian-backed groups that tried to seize power in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. Monarchies have continued to thrive in the Gulf and in Jordan.
Sudan, therefore, was left not only poor but also potentially as a state full of underlying struggles for the nature of the region. It is seen as an Arab state, despite being in the Horn of Africa, and has played a role in Arab nationalist and religious politics. Turkey had sought to increase its role there in the last decade; Egypt now wants key allies in Sudan.
Elon Musk Strikes Deal to Sell Multiple Homes in Los AngelesSponsored by Mansion Global
According to Al-Ain media, the Sudanese Professional Association has called its supporters to the streets after news of the arrests was publicized. Reuters quoted a witness that Internet services were disrupted in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum.
“Sudan is living in the midst of a severe political crisis following the escalation of the dispute between the military and civilian partners of the transitional period, amid the absence of a solution horizon in light of each party’s adherence to its position,” the report said at Al-Ain.
“The military and their supporters, camping in front of the presidential palace for the tenth day in a row, are calling for the dissolution of the transitional government, the formation of other national competencies, the dissolution of the Brotherhood’s dismantling committee and the expansion of the base of participation in the ruling coalition,” it said, “while the Alliance for Freedom and Change rejects these demands, and considers the movement in front of the presidential palace as attempts to attack the revolution.”
REPORTS ALSO noted that the incident took place after the visit of the US envoy and that the home of Hamdok’s media adviser was stormed by troops. On October 2, Feltman was also in Sudan.
“In his meetings with Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok… members of the Cabinet, Sovereign Council Chairman Abdelfattah al-Burhan, members of the Sovereign Council and other political stakeholders, Special Envoy Feltman expressed the United States’ dedication to continued political and economic support as Sudan’s transition proceeds,”the US State Department said.
“He also underscored that such support depends on Sudan’s adherence to the agreed transitional order as established in the 2019 Constitutional Declaration and the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement,” it said.
“Deviation from this path and failure to meet key benchmarks will place at risk Sudan’s bilateral relationship with the United States, including significant US assistance, as well as the prospect of security cooperation to modernize the Sudanese armed forces and US support in the International Financial Institutions and for debt relief.”
On October 24, Voice of America reported the second recent Feltman visit. It noted that hundreds of thousands of people had been protesting for civilian rule.
The US “envoy underlined Washington’s support for a democratic transition to civilian rule in Sudan on Saturday during talks with the head of its ruling council and the prime minister, the US embassy in Khartoum said.”
In the VOA report, Feltman was said to have “urged all sides to recommit to working together to implement Sudan’s constitutional declaration, signed after a 2018-2019 uprising that resulted in the removal of president Omar al-Bashir.”
Feltman had met with the generals and the head of the Sovereignty Council. “Tensions between the civilian and military leaders who now share power have soared in the wake of an attempted military coup in September, which the army said it had foiled.”
埃及總統塞西多年來首次結束緊急狀態
通過路透
2021 年 10 月 25 日 21:31
埃及總統阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西 (Abdel Fattah al-Sisi) 週一在 Facebook 帖子中寫道，他多年來首次結束該國的緊急狀態。
埃及於 2017 年 4 月首次實施緊急狀態，此後每隔三個月延長一次。
Egypt's President Sisi ends state of emergency for the first time in years
By REUTERS
OCTOBER 25, 2021 21:31
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Monday that he ended the state of emergency in the country for the first time in years, the president wrote in a Facebook post.
Egypt first imposed a state of emergency in April 2017 and has extended it at three-month intervals since.
伊朗派遣先進防空電池挑戰以色列
以色列在敘利亞發動襲擊，試圖阻止伊朗在敘利亞和黎巴嫩的真主黨設防和向真主黨走私先進武器。
作者：安娜·阿羅海姆
2021 年 10 月 25 日 21:32
伊朗國旗飄揚在維也納聯合國辦公大樓前
（照片來源：路透社/LISI NIESNER/文件照片）
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伊朗已開始在該地區部署先進的防空導彈組，包括在以色列飛機經常進行空襲的敘利亞，試圖挑戰以色列空軍的飛機。
據國外報導，以色列在敘利亞進行了數百次襲擊，試圖阻止伊朗在敘利亞和黎巴嫩以及伊拉克等國家，甚至進一步作為其間戰爭的一部分，阻止伊朗在敘利亞和黎巴嫩向真主黨走私先進武器。對伊朗的戰爭運動。
過去一年，以色列在敘利亞的打擊力度加大，而敘利亞防空系統的反應速度卻加快了。這導致以色列空軍改變了其在此類行動中的行動方式，包括在行動期間擴大編隊規模，以便一次打擊更多目標，而不是讓噴氣式飛機返回同一目標。
2018 年，一架 F-16 在以色列行動期間被敘利亞軍隊發射的 S-200 導彈擊中後墜毀在以色列北部。近年來，敘利亞導彈也降落在以色列，包括今年，一枚導彈的彈片擊中了特拉維夫北部，另一枚錯誤的攔截導彈落在了內蓋夫沙漠的迪莫納核電站附近。
伊朗是以色列軍隊的重中之重，參謀長中將。Aviv Kohavi 為戰備和軍事演習預留了額外的國防預算。以色列空軍還恢復了針對伊朗核設施成為目標的情景的強化培訓。
為了挑戰以色列的噴氣式飛機，伊朗改變了其防空導彈電池的部署，將其雷達與導彈發射器分開。此舉迫使更多的以色列噴氣式飛機參與任何可能的針對該國核計劃的行動。
以色列空軍明白伊斯蘭共和國的國防工業很強大。雖然它可能沒有空軍，但其無人機能力令人擔憂，並對以色列和其他地區國家構成重大威脅，正如 2019 年沙特阿美襲擊事件和今年早些時候發生的致命默瑟街襲擊事件所見。
國防官員已經確定真主黨、哈馬斯和其他恐怖組織手中的伊朗無人機數量有所增加。
哈馬斯、巴勒斯坦伊斯蘭聖戰組織和真主黨在投資無人機能力後都使用武器化無人機進行攻擊。
近年來，無人機侵犯了以色列領空，導致以色列國防軍緊急出動噴氣式飛機或發射導彈。哈馬斯在 5 月的最後一場戰爭中使用了伊朗無人機，幾架伊朗無人機試圖侵入該國北部的以色列領空。
在默瑟街襲擊事件發生後，國防部長本尼·甘茨警告說，伊朗在幾次襲擊中使用了無人機，這就是“我們現在必須對伊朗採取行動的原因。伊朗不僅努力獲得核能力，而且還在伊朗、也門、伊拉克和其他國家通過配備數百架無人機的恐怖主義民兵在中東引發危險的軍備競賽並播下不穩定的種子。”
甘茨警告說，伊朗構成的威脅“不是未來的威脅，而是有形的直接威脅”，他誓言以色列將努力消除對以色列公民和利益的任何威脅。
Iran sending advanced anti-aircraft batteries to challenge Israel
Israel carries out strikes in Syria in an attempt to thwart Iranian entrenchment and the smuggling of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon.
By ANNA AHRONHEIM
OCTOBER 25, 2021 21:32
Iranian flag flies in front of the UN office building in Vienna
(photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER/FILE PHOTO)
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Iran has begun deploying advanced anti-aircraft missile batteries to the region, including in Syria where Israeli jets routinely carry out airstrikes, in an attempt to challenge Israel Air Force jets.
Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria in an attempt to thwart Iranian entrenchment and the smuggling of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon, according to foreign reports, and in countries like Iraq and even further as part of its war-between-wars campaign against Iran.
Over the past year, while Israeli strikes have intensified in Syria, the response time by Syrian air-defense batteries has become quicker. This has lead to the IAF changing how it acts during such operations, including by having larger formation during operations so that more targets can be struck at once instead of having jets return to the same target.
In 2018, an F-16 crashed in northern Israel after it was struck by an S-200 missile fired by Syrian forces during an Israeli operation. Syrian missiles have also landed in Israel in recent years, including this year when shrapnel from one missile hit northern Tel Aviv, and when another errant interceptor missile landed close to the Dimona nuclear site in the Negev Desert.
Iran is a top priority for Israel’s military, and Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi has set aside an additional defense budget for war readiness and military exercises. The IAF has also resumed intensive training for scenarios in which Iran’s nuclear facilities are targeted.
In an attempt to challenge Israeli jets, Iran has changed the deployment of its anti-aircraft missile batteries, separating their radars from the missile launchers. Such a move forces more Israeli jets to take part in any possible operation against the country’s nuclear program.
The Israel Air Force understands that the Islamic Republic’s defense industry is robust. While it might not have an air force, its drone capabilities are worrisome and pose a major threat to Israel and other regional countries, as seen by the 2019 Aramco attack and the recent deadly Mercer Street attack earlier this year.
Defense officials have identified an increased amount of Iranian drones in the hands of Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorist groups.
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Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah have all used weaponized drones to carry out attacks after they invested in drone capabilities.
Drones have breached Israeli airspace in recent years, leading the IDF to scramble jets or fire missiles. Hamas used Iranian drones during the last war in May, and several Iranian drones tried to breach Israeli airspace in the North of the country.
Following the Mercer Street attack, Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned that Iran has used its drones in several attacks, and that is “exactly why we must act now against Iran. Iran not only strives to gain nuclear capabilities, but it is also sparking a dangerous arms race and sowing instability in the Middle East via terrorist militias armed with hundreds of UAVs, in Iran, Yemen, Iraq and other countries.”
Warning that the threat posed by Iran is “not a future threat but a tangible and immediate one,” Gantz vowed that Israel will work to remove any threat against Israeli citizens and interests.
美國的耐心到了，對德黑蘭的壓力可能還需要幾天時間——分析
如果耶路撒冷希望華盛頓對德黑蘭進行重大升級，它將不得不等待數月而不是數天。
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
2021 年 10 月 25 日 20:35
伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西本月早些時候訪問了布什爾核電站。
（圖片來源：官方總統網站/路透社）
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等待德黑蘭談話的拜登政府的第一階段已經結束。
美國對伊朗推遲重返核談判的耐心已經上升，它將在“未來幾天和幾週”開始與全球合作夥伴一起施加壓力，以讓伊朗回到談判桌，這是新聞發布會的一個重要內容美國伊朗特使羅伯·馬利。
在簡報會上，馬利說他和他的團隊最近會見了歐盟、遜尼派海灣國家和其他非西方夥伴（9 月他在莫斯科），以“討論我們從這裡走向何方——看看未來幾周和幾個月”，如果談判不能在短期內恢復，他們將對伊斯蘭共和國採取什麼步驟。
2015 年 3 月 20 日，在洛桑與伊朗外交部長賈瓦德·扎里夫就伊朗核計劃會晤後，美國國務卿約翰·克里與他的談判團隊成員一起共進午餐，其中包括美國國家安全委員會的羅伯特·馬利（左）。（信用：路透社/布賴恩斯奈德）
然而，他幾乎立即糾正了自己，並表示美國及其合作夥伴不會在未來幾個月內採取行動，而是“在未來幾天和幾週內”採取行動。
這可能是弗洛伊德式的從舊信息到新信息的失誤，但重要的是急於糾正並為美國的回應創造更大的即時性和期望。
雖然距離美國或以色列軍事行動的最後期限還很遠——馬利對這些問題非常不屑一顧——但這是華盛頓準備認真對待“B計劃”以迫使德黑蘭停止其核侵犯並進行合作的第一個跡象與國際原子能機構的檢查員。
這是與數月來的一般性威脅相比的重大變化，伊朗無法永遠回到與任何後果完全無關的談判桌前。
從以色列的角度來看，推動伊斯蘭共和國重新進入談判並遠離持續 60% 的核濃縮的一些真正的牙齒和後果是個好消息。
儘管如此，這只是信息的一半。
消息的另一半是，拜登政府將採取的步驟可能會緩慢而漸進地推出，以最大限度地增加阿亞圖拉重返談判桌的機會。
如果耶路撒冷可能希望華盛頓對德黑蘭進行重大升級，它可能需要再等幾個月，而不是幾天。
拜登團隊如此致力於外交解決方案，以至於馬利說，即使2015 年的 JCPOA 核協議已經過時，該方法也只是談判一項新的更新協議。
洩露的報導談到試圖讓俄羅斯和中國在口頭和經濟上進一步孤立伊朗。
最近幾天，莫斯科罕見地批評阿亞圖拉未能在維也納表達他們與美國的分歧。
關鍵將是俄羅斯和中國是否會按照任何時間表加入。
如果他們這樣做了，這正是迫使德黑蘭在 2012 年至 2015 年之間進行妥協的原因。
然而，如果他們不這樣做，美國和歐盟所能施加的所有壓力可能不足以讓阿亞圖拉讓步。
所以現在真正的問題是找出最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊的遊戲是什麼。
如果他想再壓幾個月，獲得濃縮 60% 的寶貴科學核經驗並隱瞞一些成就，最終可能會進行談判和達成協議。
如果哈梅內伊不願意在沒有更嚴重壓力的情況下談判，我們可能還有幾個月或更長時間才能結束目前的雞核談判遊戲。
最黑暗的情況是，哈梅內伊假裝想要交談，卻希望獲得核武器——這可能只有以色列的罷工才能阻止。
但馬利週一的演講至少可能會讓伊朗幾個月來首次處於守勢。
US patience is up, pressure on Tehran could be days away - analysis
If Jerusalem hoped for a major escalation from Washington against Tehran, it will have to wait months longer, and not days.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB
OCTOBER 25, 2021 20:35
IRANIAN PRESIDENT Ebrahim Raisi visits the Bushehr nuclear power plant earlier this month.
(photo credit: OFFICIAL PRESIDENTIAL WEBSITE / REUTERS)
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Stage one of the Biden administration waiting for Tehran to talk has concluded.
The patience of the US with Iranian procrastination from returning to nuclear talks is up and it will start exerting pressure along with global partners in “the coming days and weeks” to get Iran back to the negotiating table, was a major takeaway from a press briefing by US Iran envoy Rob Malley.
At one point in the briefing, Malley said that he and his team had met with EU, Sunni Gulf states and other non-Western partners (in September he was in Moscow) recently to “discuss where we go from here – to see in the coming weeks and months” what steps they would take against the Islamic Republic if there was no near-term return to talks.
United States Secretary of State John Kerry walks to lunch with members his negotiating team, including Robert Malley (L) from the US National Security Council, following a meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif over Iran's nuclear program in Lausanne March 20, 2015. (credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)
However, almost immediately he corrected himself and said there would be action by the Us and its partners not in the coming months, but “in the coming days and weeks.”
This might have been a Freudian slip from old messages to new messages, but what mattered was the rush to correct and create greater immediacy and expectations for a US response.
While far from a deadline for US or Israeli military action – Malley was very dismissive of questions along those lines – it is a first sign that Washington is ready to get serious about a “Plan B” for pressing Tehran to halt its nuclear violations and cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.
This is a major change from months of generic threats that Iran did not have forever to return to the table which was entirely divorced from any consequences.
From Israel’s perspective, some real teeth and consequences to push the Islamic Republic back into talks and away from continued 60% nuclear enrichment is good news.
Still, that was only half of the message.
The other half of the message was that the steps the Biden administration will take will likely be rolled out slowly and incrementally to maximize the chances of the ayatollahs returning to the negotiating table.
If Jerusalem might have hoped for a major escalation from Washington against Tehran, it will likely have to wait some months longer, and not days.
So committed to a diplomatic solution is the Biden team that Malley said that even if the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal became obsolete, the approach would simply be to negotiate a new-updated deal.
Leaked reports have talked about trying to get Russia and China to verbally and economically further isolate Iran.
In recent days, Moscow took a rare moment to criticize the ayatollahs for failing to talk out their disagreements with the US in Vienna.
The key will be whether Russia and China will get on board for any timeline.
If they do, that is exactly what forced Tehran’s hand into a process of compromise between 2012 and 2015.
Yet, if they do not, all of the US and EU pressure that can be mustered may be insufficient to get the ayatollahs to budge.
So the real question now will be finding out what Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s game is.
If he wanted to press a few more months to gain valuable scientific nuclear experience with 60% enrichment and to conceal some achievements, there may finally be negotiations and a deal.
If Khamenei is unwilling to talk without more serious pressure, we still may be months away or more from seeing an end to the current game of chicken and nuclear negotiations.
The darkest scenario is where Khamenei is hoping to achieve a nuclear weapon while pretending to want to talk – something likely only an Israeli strike could prevent.
But Malley’s presentation Monday at least could put Iran on the defensive for the first time in months.
伊朗向納坦茲的更多機器供應高濃縮鈾 - IAEA
伊朗尚未宣佈在維也納恢復討論恢復 2015 年核協議的日期，根據該協議，伊朗遏制其核計劃以擺脫美國、歐盟和聯合國的經濟制裁。
通過路透
2021 年 10 月 25 日 22:29
2008 年 4 月，前伊朗總統馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德訪問了納坦茲鈾濃縮設施，當時該設施的離心機被震網病毒摧毀。為什麼現在要為攻擊和參與而承擔責任，並以咆哮和虛張聲勢承認？
（照片來源：伊朗伊斯蘭共和國總統辦公室通過蓋蒂圖片社拍攝）
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聯合國核監督機構週一表示，伊朗正在將其鈾濃縮擴大到超過 20% 純度的高濃縮閾值，在那裡它已經濃縮到 60%，但新活動不涉及保留該產品。
此舉可能有助於伊朗完善其對濃縮過程的了解——西方大國普遍譴責這一點，因為它是不可逆轉的——但由於這次產品沒有被收集，它不會立即加速伊朗生產濃縮鈾以接近武器——年級。然而，國際原子能機構在路透社看到的一份報告中表示，這促使國際原子能機構在納坦茲的地上試驗燃料濃縮廠（PFEP）“增加其保障活動的頻率和強度”。大約 90% 的鈾被認為是武器級的。
國際原子能機構在一份概述該報告的聲明中表示，伊朗上周向其通報了該廠離心機設置的變化，即濃縮鈾的機器，伊朗將把濃縮至 20% 的鈾輸送到數量有限的額外離心機中，而不會收集產品。
2020 年 9 月 21 日，國際原子能機構總幹事拉斐爾·格羅西聆聽伊朗原子能組織負責人阿里-阿克巴爾·薩利希在奧地利維也納總部舉行的國際原子能機構大會開幕式上的講話（圖片來源：REUTERS/LEONHARD FOEGER）
“2021 年 10 月 25 日，原子能機構核實伊朗開始將濃縮至 20% U-235 的（六氟化鈾氣體）送入 PFEP 研發生產線 2 的單個 IR-6 離心機中，並且由此產生的產品和尾料流正在被回收。 -結合，”國際原子能機構的報告說，這意味著在分離濃縮產品後，它與離心機的廢物混合而不是保留。
伊朗曾表示，它還計劃將濃縮至 20% 的鈾輸送到同一生產線上的其他單一離心機或中小型級聯或機器集群中，但當時並沒有輸送這些設備，IAEA說過。
伊朗尚未宣佈在維也納恢復討論恢復 2015 年核協議的日期，根據該協議，伊朗遏制其核計劃以換取美國、歐盟和聯合國經濟制裁的緩解。
當時的美國總統唐納德特朗普於 2018 年放棄了該協議，並重新實施了嚴厲的美國製裁。大約一年後，伊朗開始違反協議對鈾濃縮的一些限制。
Iran feeds highly enriched uranium into more machines at Natanz -IAEA
Iran has yet to announce a date to resume discussions in Vienna about reviving the 2015 nuclear pact under which it curbed its nuclear program for relief from US, EU, and UN economic sanctions.
By REUTERS
OCTOBER 25, 2021 22:29
Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in April 2008, shortly before its centrifuges were destroyed by the Stuxnet virus. Why is responsibility now being taken for attacks and involvement being admitted with bluster and bravado?
(photo credit: PHOTO BY THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN VIA GETTY IMAGES)
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Iran is expanding its enrichment of uranium beyond the highly enriched threshold of 20% purity at a Natanz plant where it is already enriching to 60%, but the new activity does not involve keeping the product, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Monday.
The move is likely to help Iran refine its knowledge of the enrichment process - something Western powers generally condemn because it is irreversible - but since this time the product is not being collected it will not immediately accelerate Iran's production of uranium enriched to close to weapons-grade. It has, however, prompted the International Atomic Energy Agency to "increase the frequency and intensity of its safeguards activities" at the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz, the IAEA said in a report seen by Reuters. As of around 90% uranium is considered weapons-grade.
The IAEA said in a statement outlining the report that Iran informed it last week of changes to the setup of centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, at the plant - Iran would feed uranium enriched to up to 20% into limited numbers of extra centrifuges without collecting the product.
IAEA director-general Rafael Grossi listens as head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Ali-Akbar Salehi delivers his speech at the opening of the IAEA General Conference at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria September 21, 2020 (credit: REUTERS/LEONHARD FOEGER)
"On 25 October 2021, the Agency verified that Iran began feeding (uranium hexafluoride gas) enriched up to 20% U-235 into a single IR-6 centrifuge in R&D line 2 at PFEP and that the resulting product and tails streams were being re-combined," the IAEA report said, meaning that after separating the enriched product it was mixed with the centrifuge's waste and not kept.
Iran had said it planned to also feed uranium enriched to up to 20% into other single centrifuges or small- to medium-sized cascades, or clusters, of machines on the same line, but those were not being fed at the time, the IAEA said.
Iran has yet to announce a date to resume discussions in Vienna about reviving the 2015 nuclear pact under which it curbed its nuclear program in return for relief from US, EU and UN economic sanctions.
Then-US President Donald Trump abandoned the pact in 2018 and reimposed harsh US sanctions. About a year later, Iran started violating some of the deal's limits on uranium enrichment.
以色列國防軍散發傳單，稱敘利亞阿拉伯軍官為真主黨工作
在以色列被指控襲擊戈蘭敘利亞一側的目標後不久，這些小冊子就被丟棄了。
作者：安娜·阿羅海姆
2021 年 10 月 25 日 20:55
2019 年 1 月 21 日，在敘利亞大馬士革上空看到導彈射擊。
（圖片來源：SANA/Handout via REUTERS）
廣告
以色列軍方散發傳單，指責敘利亞阿拉伯軍隊與真主黨合作，並在戈蘭高地的恐怖組織實施空襲幾小時後，明確點名為該恐怖組織工作的特工。
在反對派消息人士指責以色列襲擊了屬於真主黨所謂的“戈蘭檔案”的目標後不久，這些小冊子就在敘利亞南部庫奈特拉省的 al-Ba'ath 和 al-Krum 附近被撤下。
敘利亞的 SANA 通訊社後來證實了這次襲擊，稱：“猶太復國主義佔領軍今天黎明時分在南部地區發動了新的侵略，這是他們對敘利亞領土的神聖和主權一再侵略的一部分。”
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廣告：(3)
SANA援引消息人士的話說，“敘利亞確認其有權利和能力應對這些襲擊並遏制佔領當局的侵略傾向。”
敘利亞反對派消息人士稱，襲擊目標包括阿拉伯敘利亞軍隊第90旅偵察觀察連連長巴沙爾·侯賽因的辦公室。
侯賽因是傳單上提到的警告 SAA 官員不要與真主黨合作的人之一。
“三角屋”坐落在加利福尼亞州塔扎納兩山之間風景如畫的地方由 Mansion Global 贊助
這些小冊子還提到了戈蘭高地行動負責人穆尼爾·沙伊托（也稱為哈吉·哈希姆）的兒子賈瓦德·哈希姆和第 90 旅指揮官侯賽因·哈穆什的名字。
週一早上，當地居民發現了這些人的照片以及駕駛的汽車。小冊子上有保衛敘利亞接壤地區的第 210 巴山師的鷹標誌。
“給敘利亞軍隊。正如我們在之前的警告中提到的那樣，你與真主黨的持續合作及其在敘利亞南部的駐紮是給你帶來痛苦的原因，”傳單說。
“儘管如此，你們中的一些人，例如第 90 師偵察部隊的負責人巴沙爾·侯賽因上校，在出賣你們和平民的靈魂之前不會三思而後行，以幫助哈吉賈瓦德哈希姆，為繼續真主黨的偵察項目服務在 Tel Kurom Khan 地區、金融大樓和其他地區，始終不顧公眾利益和您自己的安全。真主黨正在秘密和公開地控制和利用你。儘管如此，這並不妨礙我們隨時隨地揭露其骯髒的行為。”
5 月，以色列國防軍在該地區投放了類似的小冊子，警告哈穆什不要與該組織合作。
“停止與真主黨的敘利亞和黎巴嫩人員合作，”以色列國防軍當時警告說。“否則，您將無法安心。我們特別注意到 Brig.-Gen。Hussein Hamoush，第 90 旅指揮官。他是那些以最便宜的價格出賣自己的良心和家園的人之一，以換取真主黨的援助，以在他們的主人中偽裝他們的形象，無視一般利益和你的安全。”
以色列一再警告說，它不會容忍德黑蘭在敘利亞戈蘭建立永久軍事存在的努力，並承認對屬於伊朗及其代理人真主黨的目標進行了數百次襲擊。
幾天前，總理納夫塔利·貝內特在俄羅斯索契會見了俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京，後者發誓莫斯科不會妨礙耶路撒冷對敘利亞採取行動的自由。
軍方高級官員證實，兩軍之間沒有摩擦，化解機制運作良好。
兩週前，以色列被指控在與以色列接壤的戈蘭高地哈達爾村附近的 Eltinah 鎮用狙擊手射擊殺死了 Madhat al-Salah。薩拉赫此前曾因恐怖主義活動在以色列監獄中度過一段時間，並被認為是一名敘利亞情報活動家，曾參與在以色列招募消息來源。
儘管外媒指責以色列在空襲中針對與真主黨合作的敘利亞人進行空襲，但以色列首次被指控對參與恐怖組織的個人使用狙擊火力。
自從敘利亞軍隊重新奪回敘利亞南部並返回陣地後，真主黨和伊朗支持的軍隊已部署到該地區。根據 ALMA 研究和教育中心的一份報告，在敘利亞南部庫奈特拉省和德拉省有 58 個地點屬於該組織。
根據去年發布的報告，有 28 個地點部署了真主黨部隊作為南方司令部部隊的一部分，另有 30 個地點存在根據戈蘭項目運作的小組。
由穆尼爾·阿里·納伊姆·沙提 (Munir Ali Na'im Shaiti) 領導的南部司令部是負責敘利亞南部的真主黨部隊，其主要職能是在該地區建立真主黨基礎設施，不