蘇聯人給納賽爾的最危險的建議也許是他們堅持認為埃及應該在 1967 年 6 月的戰爭中等待發動攻擊。
2021 年 7 月 15 日 12:38
1958 年，埃及總統賈邁勒·阿卜杜勒·納賽爾（右）與蘇聯總理尼基塔·赫魯曉夫首次訪問莫斯科。 (Zeinab Mohamed/Flickr)
埃及，Al-Watan，7 月 9 日
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俄羅斯人弊大於利。這是已故總統安瓦爾薩達特的觀點。那些經歷了 1970 年代的人都記得他的著名演講，他聲稱在 1973 年戰爭之前已將 15,000 名蘇聯專家驅逐出埃及，因為他希望這場戰鬥成為埃及的戰鬥。
與總統賈邁勒·阿卜杜勒·納賽爾相反，薩達特懷疑地看著蘇聯人。事實上，在埃及在納賽爾時代經歷的許多磨難中，俄羅斯人扮演了非常危險的角色。他們是建議納賽爾趕緊介入也門泥潭的人。俄羅斯人在 1967 年的挫折中也扮演了危險的角色。
蘇聯人給納賽爾的最危險的建議也許是他們堅持認為埃及應該在 1967 年 6 月的戰爭中等待發動攻擊。納賽爾知道以色列會在六月的頭幾天發動襲擊，但他聽了蘇聯的看法，即吸收第一次襲擊，然後才對以色列進行報復對埃及來說是可取的。我不需要提醒你埃及因蘇聯這種不誠實的建議而付出的代價。
科威特，Al-Qabas，7 月 10 日
貝魯特美國大學成立於 155 年前，由美國牧師丹尼爾·布利斯 (Daniel Bliss) 創立。它最初被命名為敘利亞新教學院，然後在大約一個世紀前採用現在的名稱。雖然它的創始人是一位傳教士，但它始終是一個世俗機構。第一年的教學課程包括阿拉伯語、英語、法語、土耳其語、拉丁語、數學、古代阿拉伯歷史和宗教史，包括猶太教。一年後，藥學和醫學成為其課程的一部分。它見證了許多著名校友畢業並在社會、政治和藝術領域扮演重要角色。
隨著黎巴嫩安全、經濟、社會、政治甚至道德狀況的崩潰以及該大學面臨的財政困難，其管理部門決定關閉大門或搬到另一個國家。隨著關閉意向的消息傳開，科威特的名字出現在候選國家的首位。已經就此事與科威特官員接洽，並對這一想法表示熱烈歡迎。經過不斷的討論，科威特高等教育部為大學的轉移設定了以下條件：更名為“科威特國立大學”；將女子學院與男子學院分開；允許女性戴頭巾或面紗；允許在校園內建立伊斯蘭禮拜場所；阻止研究某些批判性理論，例如達爾文主義；允許慈善基金會在大學內設立分支機構；並確保大學 30% 的學生主修伊斯蘭研究。
7 月 10 日，黎巴嫩，Al-Nahar
自 2001 年 9 月 11 日襲擊事件以來，由美國主導的國際反恐戰爭正在發生戲劇性的轉變。全球聯盟沒有將注意力集中在基地組織和伊斯蘭國這樣的組織上，而是努力將注意力重新轉移到與伊朗有聯繫的什葉派伊斯蘭組織上。
在阿富汗和伊拉克戰爭開始近 20 年後，華盛頓完成了從該地區撤出其士兵的工作，結束了一場針對世界各地遜尼派伊斯蘭原教旨主義團體的戰爭。現在這些組織的主要領導人，如奧薩馬·本·拉登、阿布·巴克爾·巴格達迪等大部分都被消滅了，伊斯蘭國也被從其主要據點連根拔起，西方的目光現在似乎已經盯上了在伊朗革命衛隊的指揮下運作的團體，如黎巴嫩的真主黨、伊拉克的人民動員部隊和敘利亞的什葉派民兵。
沙特阿拉伯 Al-Jazirah，7 月 8 日
如果巴勒斯坦領導人更明智，它就會接受向加沙人民提供的任何援助。然而，哈馬斯領導層在其立場上仍然頑固不化，因此拒絕了可能損害其權威的外援。因此，我們在加沙的兄弟姐妹繼續受苦。哈馬斯，以及與此類似的伊斯蘭聖戰組織，在與以色列敵人的反复軍事對抗中一再誤判。這些錯誤使加沙變成了一個失敗的國家，尤其是自哈馬斯 2007 年武裝接管加沙以來。鑑於哈馬斯日益受到國際孤立，巴勒斯坦各派之間的內部關係不佳，以及阿拉伯世界對其他地緣政治問題的關注，支持加沙重建的渴望和熱情仍然很低。
Voices from the Arab press: Neither Russians nor Americans will save us
Perhaps the most dangerous advice the Soviets gave Nasser was their insistence that Egypt should wait to initiate an attack during the June 1967 war.
By MEDIA LINE
JULY 15, 2021 12:38
EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT Gamal Abdel Nasser (right) with Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev, on his first visit to Moscow, 1958. (Zeinab Mohamed/Flickr)
(photo credit: ZEINAB MOHAMED/FLICKR)
NEITHER THE RUSSIANS NOR THE AMERICANS WILL SAVE US
Al-Watan, Egypt, July 9
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
The Russians do more harm than good. This was the viewpoint of the late President Anwar Sadat. Those who lived through the 1970s remember his famous speech in which he claimed to have expelled 15,000 Soviet experts from Egypt before the 1973 war because he wanted the battle to be Egypt’s battle.
Sadat, in contrast to president Gamal Abdel Nasser, looked suspiciously at the Soviets. In fact, the Russians played a very dangerous role in many of the ordeals that Egypt went through during the Nasser era. They were the ones who advised Nasser to rush and intervene in the Yemeni quagmire. The Russians also had a dangerous role in the 1967 setback.
Many of the decisions taken by Nasser that resulted in the outbreak of the war, were based on incorrect information he received from the Soviets that Israel was amassing its forces on its borders with Syria. This information was proved to be false several times.
Perhaps the most dangerous advice the Soviets gave Nasser was their insistence that Egypt should wait to initiate an attack during the June 1967 war. Nasser knew that an Israeli strike would take place during the first days of June and yet he listened to the Soviet view that absorbing the first strike and only then retaliating against Israel would be preferable for Egypt. I don’t need to remind you of the price that Egypt paid as a result of such dishonest Soviet advice.
The event that prompts me to recall this unfortunate Soviet role is the current Russian position surrounding the Renaissance Dam, which threatens Egypt and Sudan. The Russian mission to the UN has been speaking unconvincingly about this matter and limiting Egypt’s freedom to act against Ethiopia. In my view, the Russian position isn’t surprising. Russia has billions of dollars of investments in Africa and is simply interested in preserving its own national interests.
The Renaissance Dam problem is our problem. We must not wait to receive permission from any international player, above all from Russia, to secure our rights to the Nile waters. No one will protect our sovereignty and no one will fight on our behalf. The Nile problem affects neither Russia nor America, so expecting the two countries to have Egypt’s best interests in mind is an absurd premise. The solution to the situation is in our hands.
Everyone agrees that Egypt has long addressed this situation with patience. The time has come to act against Ethiopia and to protect our national interest and sovereignty.
– Mahmoud Khalil
MOVING THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT TO KUWAIT
Al-Qabas, Kuwait, July 10
The American University of Beirut was founded 155 years ago by the American priest Daniel Bliss. It was first named the Syrian Protestant College, before adopting its current name about a century ago. Although its founder was a missionary, it was always a secular institution. The teaching curriculum in its first year included Arabic, English, French, Turkish, Latin, mathematics, ancient Arab history, and the history of religions, including Judaism. A year later, pharmacy and medicine became part of its curriculum. It saw many famous alumni graduate and assume meaningful roles in society, politics, and the arts.
The university also contributed to making Beirut a publishing center in the region when it transferred its printing press from Malta to Lebanon. The university also followed high educational standards and values, and a strict American curriculum, and was the first in the region to rely on the principles of critical thinking and open discussion without discrimination between students.
With the collapse of the security, economic, social, political, and even moral situation in Lebanon and the financial difficulties that the university is facing, its administration decided to close its doors or move to another country. With the spread of news of the intention to close, the name of Kuwait emerged at the top of the candidate countries to move to. Kuwaiti officials have been approached about the matter, and warmly welcomed the idea. Following ongoing discussions, the Kuwaiti Higher Education Ministry set the following conditions for the University’s transfer: changing the name to “Kuwait National University”; separating the women’s college from the men’s college; allowing women to wear a hijab or niqab; allowing the establishment of Islamic places of worship within its campus; preventing the study of certain critical theories such as Darwinism; allowing charitable foundations to establish branches within the university; and ensuring that 30% of the University’s students major in Islamic studies.
The university administration met in Beirut and decided, within seconds, to reject the conditions and to consider moving to another country. Of course, the entire scenario I described above isn’t true. But it was a very close representation of reality. If any educational body at the level of the American University thought of transferring its activities to Kuwait, the Kuwaiti forces of backwardness and darkness would be on the lookout and sabotage such a monumental feat from happening. Instead of embracing an opportunity to push our country forward, Kuwaiti officials would have imposed hurdles and barriers along the way.
I’m not sure why, but I’m always reminded of the story of Noah’s Ark. If Noah lived in modern-day Kuwait, he would have spent months trying to obtain a permit for his ark, without hammering a single nail. And while the Kuwaiti government would have sat and deliberated Noah’s case, the whole land would have been flooded.
– Ahmed Al-Sarraf
WAVING THE Hezbollah flag in Marjayoun, Lebanon. (Credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
INT’L WAR ON TERROR SHIFTING FROM SUNNI TO SHI’ITE FUNDAMENTALISTS
Al-Nahar, Lebanon, July 10
The international war on terrorism that has been led by America since the attacks of September 11, 2001, is witnessing a dramatic transformation. Instead of focusing on groups like al-Qaida and ISIS, the global coalition is working to reshift its attention to Shi’ite Islamist groups linked to Iran.
Nearly 20 years after the start of the war in Afghanistan and then Iraq, Washington has completed the withdrawal of its soldiers from the region, ending a chapter of a war that targeted Sunni Islamic fundamentalist groups around the world. Now that most of the main leaders of these organizations, such as Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, have been eliminated, and ISIS has been uprooted from its major strongholds, it seems that the eyes of the West are now fixed on the groups operating under the command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and Shi’ite militias in Syria.
We’re also noticing more and more countries designate these groups and their political arms as terrorist organizations. The Czech Republic was the ninth European country to classify Hezbollah’s military and political wing as a terrorist organization. In doing so, it joined important actors like Britain and Germany, in addition to the United States, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. In addition, over the past few months, Washington began adding groups and leaders of some of the Popular Mobilization militias in Iraq to the terror watchlist. Meanwhile, Tehran’s policy of counterpressure on America to lift the sanctions, which relies on using its militias to launch strikes against American bases and interests in the region, will help perpetuate this emerging reality.
It seems that US President Joe Biden decided not to follow the policy of former president Barack Obama, which relied on ignoring Iran’s military operations in order to reach a nuclear agreement. The current administration is responding differently to these provocations. There are indications that the US may escalate its retaliatory strikes in the Syrian and Iraqi arenas. The repositioning of US forces in the region is yet another indication of that. Washington’s latest step is to transfer arms and equipment stores and command centers for its ground and joint forces from the Sailiya base in Qatar to Jordan, to reduce the number of American targets for Iran in the Gulf region.
Against this backdrop, the intelligence war between Iran and Israel is escalating in quantity and quality. Washington’s campaign against Hezbollah takes on an important dimension in this war, as trials are currently underway for people arrested by local authorities in various cases related to the party’s financing. Security services in the United States and several South American countries are actively cracking down on drug smugglers and money launderers who are suspected of working with Hezbollah. With these steps underway, the movement is expected to face growing pressure.
– Riad Kahwaji
RECONSTRUCTION OF GAZA MOVING TOWARD THE UNKNOWN
Al-Jazirah, Saudi Arabia, July 8
I highly doubt that the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will actually take place given the extent of damage inflicted upon it in recent years. The Strip’s buildings, houses, and health infrastructure have all sustained comprehensive damage during the recent round of aggression. The balance of power between Israel and the armed militias in Gaza is asymmetrical, and 11 days of painful Israeli strikes were enough to wreak havoc in the Gaza Strip. And while the international community spoke passionately about a ceasefire that would be followed by a comprehensive rehabilitation and reconstruction effort, not a single Western government seems concerned with the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip today.
If the Palestinian leadership were wiser, it would have accepted any aid offered to the people of Gaza. However, the Hamas leadership remains intransigent in its positions and has therefore turned down foreign aid that might undermine its authority. Consequently, our brothers and sisters in Gaza continue to suffer. Hamas, and like it, the Islamic Jihad, have made repeated miscalculations in their repeated military confrontations with the Israeli enemy. These mistakes have turned Gaza into a failed state, especially since Hamas’s 2007 armed takeover of the Strip. In light of the growing international isolation of Hamas, the poor internal relations between the Palestinian factions, and the Arab’s world preoccupation with other geopolitical issues, there remains very little eagerness and enthusiasm to support Gaza reconstruction.
The Palestinian people deserve to live in peace and dignity. They also deserve leadership that represents their interests and improves their livelihoods.
– Khalid Bin Hamad Al-Malik
Translated by Asaf Zilberfarb.
2021 年 7 月 15 日 22:18
黎巴嫩目前正處於其歷史上最嚴重的經濟危機之中。燃料和電力每天都短缺，醫療用品長期缺乏，醫院缺乏基本藥物。大約 77% 的黎巴嫩家庭無法購買足夠的食物。黎巴嫩鎊在過去兩年中貶值了 90%。與此同時，由於外匯儲備越來越少，黎巴嫩公民每週不能提款超過 100 美元。這種情況已經到了無可挽回的地步，真正有可能出現廣泛的飢餓。今天，從各方面來看，黎巴嫩都是一個失敗和崩潰的國家。
國家是如何走到這一步的？不到二十年前，黎巴嫩正在重塑其作為地中海沿岸商業和旅遊中心的形象。以 2005 年迫使敘利亞撤軍的民眾動員命名的“3 月 14 日”運動風起雲湧。它被認為是當時美國政府地區民主化戰略為數不多的成功之一。2007 年，我在那段時間訪問了這個國家。然後可以在黎巴嫩年輕人中看出一種明顯的對正常生活的渴望。內戰已經成為一個消退的記憶。至少在遜尼派和基督徒中，剩下的就是對政治暴力可能捲土重來的恐懼。以色列在南部的佔領於 2000 年 5 月結束。正常狀態似乎觸手可及。
什麼地方出了錯？當時出了什麼問題也是可以辨別的。同時，很明顯，黎巴嫩有兩個權力機構。第一個，以 3 月 14 日運動為代表，表面上是前瞻性的，面向西方、面向商業和麵向常態。另一種力量是伊朗，通過其最古老的特許經營權，黎巴嫩真主黨運動。這種利益擁有自己的軍事力量，其軍事力量超過了國家的力量，並使該國的其他非正規軍事存在相形見絀。它也有自己的經濟、自己的收入來源、自己的走私路線。
伊朗方面的計劃是兩個黎巴嫩應該無限期地繼續存在。前者是為了提供一個方便的正常性和合法性外殼，後者可以在德黑蘭與以色列的長期戰爭中繼續其分配的任務。3 月 14 日項目的支持者傾向於避免討論硬實力問題。回想起來，這證明是致命的。
3 月 14 日的黎巴嫩可能會捍衛其國家願景的任何機會都在 2008 年 5 月和 6 月的事件中結束。在貝魯特街頭的短暫衝突中，阿邁勒和真主黨的軍隊輕蔑地將親 3 月 14 日的遜尼派和德魯茲派軍隊進行了隨意的軍事動員。
我記得 2008 年夏天，在貝魯特暴力事件發生後不久，我在倫敦的一次活動中向主要是年輕黎巴嫩人的聽眾發表講話。我警告說，該國新興的前景是伊朗佔領。也許可以理解，沒有人想從以色列人那裡聽到這些。“我們寧願擁有他們而不是你，”一名年輕的黎巴嫩婦女喊道，贏得了觀眾的掌聲。隨它吧。現在她有了她的願望，以及它的後果。
在 2008 年之後的幾年裡，事件呈螺旋式下降。敘利亞內戰為黎巴嫩帶來了大約 180 萬難民，進一步加劇了該國脆弱的基礎設施的壓力。這場戰爭對旅遊業造成了嚴重打擊，旅遊業佔黎巴嫩 GDP 的 7.5% 左右。2015 年至 2016 年，沙特和美國對伊朗在該國擁有權力的現實日益不滿。2016 年初，利雅得宣布從黎巴嫩中央銀行提取存款。在此之前，取消了對黎巴嫩武裝和安全部隊的 40 億美元援助。
美國 2015 年的“真主黨國際融資預防法”對金融服務業造成了沉重打擊，這是黎巴嫩經濟的另一個關鍵要素。沙特阿拉伯、巴林、科威特和阿拉伯聯合酋長國當時發布了禁止前往黎巴嫩旅行的警告。這結束了該國作為尋求海灣限制的適當喘息的遊客的寬鬆遊樂場的傳統角色。
在這個階段，黎巴嫩正在尋求管理 690 億美元的公共債務，總計佔 GDP 的 150%。但隨著官方經濟的衰落，平行的伊朗/真主黨影子經濟繁榮起來。然而，並不是以普通公民受益的方式。黎巴嫩和敘利亞之間的漏洞或真主黨監督的邊界允許走私石油進口並在敘利亞轉售，以造福真主黨。在敘利亞製造的苯丙胺藥丸和大麻以另一種方式走私，通過真主黨監督的路線在歐洲城市或海灣找到目的地。毋庸置疑，這個新興行業的利潤都沒有用於償還國債，也沒有用於使搖搖欲墜的公共基礎設施受益。
2020 年 3 月，在全國多宗派抗議腐敗、公共服務差、青年失業和管理不善的背景下，黎巴嫩首次出現拖欠債務的情況。國際貨幣基金組織批准了一項改革計劃，但在 2020 年 8 月貝魯特港爆炸後政府辭職後，談判陷入停滯。黎巴嫩經濟在 2020 年收縮了 20%。
Lebanon is dying a slow death
BEHIND THE LINES: The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
By JONATHAN SPYER
JULY 15, 2021 22:18
A WOMAN sits near a fire during a protest in March in Beirut against the fall in the Lebanese currency and mounting economic hardship.
(photo credit: MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)
Lebanon is currently in the grip of the worst economic crisis in its history. There are daily shortages of fuel and electricity, a chronic lack of medical supplies, and an absence of essential medicines in hospitals. Some 77% of Lebanese households are unable to purchase sufficient food. The Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value over the last two years. Lebanese citizens, meanwhile, are prevented from withdrawing more than $100 per week, as foreign currency reserves grow thin. The situation is reaching a point of no return, with the real possibility of widespread hunger. Lebanon is, today, by all measures a failed and collapsing state.
How has the country reached this point? Less than two decades ago, Lebanon was revamping its image as a center of commerce and tourism on the Mediterranean coast. The “March 14” movement, named after the popular mobilization which forced a Syrian withdrawal in 2005, was riding high. It was presented as one of the few successes of what was then the US administration’s strategy of regional democratization. I visited the country in that period, in 2007. A palpable longing for normality could then be discerned among younger Lebanese. The civil war was already a receding memory. What remained of it, among Sunnis and Christians at least, was a kind of dread of the possibility that political violence might return. The Israeli occupation in the south had ended in May 2000. Normality seemed within reach.
What went wrong? What went wrong was discernible also back then. Also then, it was evident that there were two powers in Lebanon. The first, as represented by the March 14 movement, was ostensibly forward-looking, oriented toward the West, toward commerce and toward normality. The other power was that of Iran, via its oldest franchise, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. This interest had its own military power that outmatched that of the state and dwarfed the other irregular military presences in the country. It had its own economy, too, its own sources of income, its own smuggling routes.
The project of the Iranian element was that the two Lebanons should continue to exist indefinitely. The former was to provide a convenient carapace of normality and legitimacy beneath which the latter could continue its allotted tasks in Tehran’s long war against Israel. Supporters of the March 14 project had a tendency to avoid the discussion of hard-power issues. This in retrospect was to prove fatal.
Any chance that the Lebanon of March 14 might mount a defense in arms of its vision of the country ended in the events of May and June 2008. In a brief conflict on the streets of Beirut, the forces of Amal and Hezbollah contemptuously brushed aside the haphazard military mobilizations of the pro-March 14 Sunni and Druze forces.
From this point on, the die was cast. It was clear that there would be no further attempt at real resistance to the Iranian project in Lebanon. What there would be instead would be obfuscation and denial. The Iranian approach fitted perfectly the desire of the Lebanese to ignore reality.
I remember addressing an audience of mainly young Lebanese in London at an event in summer 2008, shortly after the violent events in Beirut. I warned that the emerging prospect in the country was of Iranian occupation. No one, perhaps understandably, wanted to hear this from an Israeli. “We’d rather have them than you,” one young Lebanese woman called out, to applause from the audience. So be it. Now she has her wish, and its consequences.
IN THE YEARS subsequent to 2008, events followed a downward spiral. The Syrian civil war brought some 1.8 million refugees to Lebanon, further straining the country’s fragile infrastructure. The war dealt a crippling blow to the tourism sector, which had accounted for around 7.5% of Lebanon’s GDP. Growing Saudi and US discontent at the reality of Iranian power in the country came to a head in 2015-2016. In early 2016, Riyadh announced the withdrawal of its deposits from the Central Bank of Lebanon. This followed the cancellation of $4 billion of aid to the Lebanese armed and security forces.
The US “Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act” of 2015 hit hard at the financial services sector, another key element in the Lebanese economy. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates issued advisories against travel to Lebanon at that time. This ended the country’s traditional role as a permissive playground for visitors seeking a congenial respite from Gulf restrictions.
At this stage, Lebanon was seeking to manage a public debt of $69 billion, totaling 150% of GDP. But as the official economy foundered, the parallel Iran/Hezbollah shadow economy prospered. Not, however, in such a way that the average citizen benefited. The porous or Hezbollah-supervised borders between Lebanon and Syria allowed for smuggling of oil imports and their resale in Syria, to the benefit of Hezbollah. Captagon amphetamine pills manufactured in Syria, and cannabis were smuggled the other way, finding their destination in European cities or in the Gulf via Hezbollah-supervised routes. Needless to say, none of the profits from this burgeoning sector went to service the national debt, or to benefit the crumbling public infrastructure.
In March 2020, against the background of countrywide, multi-sectarian protests against corruption, poor public service, youth unemployment and mismanagement, Lebanon defaulted for the first time on its debt payments. A reform plan was approved by the International Monetary Fund, but following the government’s resignation after the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020, negotiations became stalled. The Lebanese economy contracted by 20% in 2020.
This is the background to the current grave crisis in Lebanon. All the elements – US sanctions, Saudi and international withdrawal of aid and investment, subsequent debt default and loss of confidence, resulting currency devaluation, a shadow economy benefiting only itself, and a paralyzed political system – are all directly traceable to the distorting effect that the presence of the pervasive Iranian project on Lebanese soil has brought.
From this point of view, the current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises. These are good at building paramilitary muscle and converting it into political power. They have no knowledge of or interest in economics. As a result, the net outcome of their taking of de facto power in a country will be that country’s eventual ruin and impoverishment. Lebanon is now the case study for this process.
From Israel’s point of view, there is little to be done but to continue to guard the borders. There is no reason to suppose that the current chaos in Lebanon will incline the Iranians and their proxies toward military adventures in the south. When hunger and infrastructural collapse are a real prospect, no one is likely to rally around the national colors – not those of Lebanon, and certainly not those of Iran and its local agents.
Regarding any international response, international aid should be made contingent on the disarming of the Iranian proxy, and the thorough reform of the political system. Any other remedy runs the danger of offering support to Lebanon’s current Iran-created dysfunctionality.
The key point: Lebanon was the first Arab state to undergo internal collapse, and consequently the first to receive the intentions of the IRGC’s brand of political-military takeover. With allowance for local variations, similar Iranian efforts are now underway in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Lebanon is the first Arab state to have been brought to the point of destruction by this project. The significance of the current events extends far beyond Lebanon’s borders. Iran is responsible for the slow death of Lebanon.
伊朗尚未準備好進行核談判，直到 Raisi 接管-source
2021 年 7 月 15 日 12:21
代表們等待上個月在奧地利維也納舉行的關於恢復 2015 年伊朗核協議的談判的開始。
一位外交消息人士周三表示，在伊朗當選總統易卜拉欣·賴西 (Ebrahim Raisi) 的政府開始之前，伊朗不准備恢復關於重新遵守 2015 年核協議的談判。
這位不願透露姓名的消息人士表示，伊朗已將此事轉達給在美伊間接談判中充當對話者的歐洲官員，目前的想法是維也納會談不會在 8 月中旬之前恢復。
“他們不准備在新政府之前回來，”消息人士說，並不清楚這是否意味著直到 Raisi 於 8 月 5 日正式接任，還是直到他的政府就位。
關於恢復 2015 年核協議的談判於 4 月開始，正式名稱為聯合綜合行動計劃 (JCPOA)，但自 6 月 20 日第六輪結束以來似乎陷入僵局，沒有跡象表明何時可以恢復。
Iran not ready for nuclear talks until Raisi takes over -source
"We are now talking probably not before mid-August."
JULY 15, 2021 12:21
DELEGATES WAIT for the start of talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, in Vienna, Austria, last month.
(photo credit: EU DELEGATION IN VIENNA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Iran is not prepared to resume negotiations on coming back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal until Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi's administration has begun, a diplomatic source said on Wednesday.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran had conveyed this to European officials acting as interlocutors in the indirect US-Iranian negotiations and that the current thinking is the Vienna talks will not resume before mid-August.
"They are not prepared to come back before the new government," said the source, saying it was not clear whether this meant until Raisi formally takes over on Aug. 5 or until his government is in place.
"We are now talking probably not before mid-August," added the source.
Talks began in April on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, formally named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but have appeared stuck since their sixth round ended on June 20, with no sign when they may resume.
The agreement, which Democratic former President Barack Obama negotiated and Republican former President Donald Trump abandoned, struck a balance between Iran accepting limits to its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.
A US State Department spokesperson confirmed that Iran had asked for more time because of its presidential transition.
"We were prepared to continue negotiating but the Iranians requested more time to deal with their presidential transition," said the State Department spokesperson.
"When Iran is done with its process, we are prepared to plan our return to Vienna to continue with our talks," she added. "We remain interested in seeking mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA, though as (Secretary of State Antony Blinken) has made clear, this offer will not be on the table indefinitely."
2021 年 7 月 14 日 17:08
2021 年 7 月 14 日，巴基斯坦上科希斯坦，這是從視頻拍攝的靜態圖像，一輛載有中國公民的巴士在巴基斯坦上科希斯坦發生爆炸後墜入峽谷，人們將輪床推向達蘇一家醫院外的救護車。
巴基斯坦白沙瓦/北京——週三，巴基斯坦北部一輛公共汽車發生爆炸，造成 13 人死亡，其中包括 9 名中國公民，北京稱這是一次炸彈襲擊，但伊斯蘭堡稱其為車輛故障。
然而，該省最高警察官員、監察長 Moazzam Jah Ansari 早些時候告訴路透社，涉嫌犯規。“看起來像是蓄意破壞，”他說。
一位不願透露姓名的哈扎拉地區高級行政官員說，這輛巴士載著 30 多名中國工程師前往上科希斯坦的達蘇大壩。
達蘇水電項目是中巴經濟走廊 (CPEC) 的一部分，該項目投資 650 億美元，旨在將中國西部與巴基斯坦南部港口瓜達爾港連接起來。
當局說，救援人員使用空中救護車將傷者（包括中國工程師）送往距離爆炸現場約 10 公里（6 英里）的大蘇醫院。
“警方和拆彈小組都在現場，”醫院外的地區官員 Arif Khan Yousufzai 補充說，並補充說正在等待調查以確定細節。
China blames bomb after Pakistan bus blast kills 13; 9 victims Chinese
Pakistan's foreign ministry said a mechanical failure caused a gas leak which led to the explosion.
JULY 14, 2021 17:08
People wheel a gurney towards an ambulance outside a hospital in Dasu, after a bus with Chinese nationals on board plunged into a ravine in Upper Kohistan following a blast, Pakistan July 14, 2021 in this still image taken from video.
(photo credit: REUTERS TV)
PESHAWAR, Pakistan/BEIJING - A blast on a bus killed 13 people in north Pakistan on Wednesday, including nine Chinese nationals in what Beijing said was a bomb attack but Islamabad called a vehicle failure.
Two Pakistani soldiers were also among the dead after the explosion sent the bus over a ravine, local government and police sources told Reuters.
Chinese engineers and Pakistani construction workers have for several years been working on hydroelectric projects as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative in the western province of Khyber-Paktunkhwa, where the blast occurred.
China's embassy in Pakistan confirmed that nine of its nationals died. Terming the explosion a bomb attack but not giving more details, the Chinese foreign ministry offered condolences and urged both a thorough investigation and protection of its personnel and projects.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said a mechanical failure caused a gas leak which led to the explosion.
‘Elkin law’ falls in embarrassment togov't after Speaker casts wrong vot
However, the province's top police official, Inspector General Moazzam Jah Ansari, earlier told Reuters foul play was suspected. "Looks like sabotage," he said.
A senior administrative officer of the Hazara region, who asked not to be named, said the bus was carrying more than 30 Chinese engineers to the Dasu dam in Upper Kohistan.
BILLIONS OF INVESTMENT
The Dasu hydroelectric project is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $65 billion investment plan aiming to link western China to the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar.
"This is clearly an act of terrorism that has been carefully planned and was supported by information," said an editorial in Global Times, a Chinese tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, calling it the most serious attack on Chinese nationals in recent years.
Chinese working in Pakistan have been attacked previously, particularly in the south-western province of Balochistan where separatist militants have waged an insurgency against authorities in a state where China develops mines and a port.
The separatists have also attacked the Chinese consulate in the southern city of Karachi. Additionally, Islamist militants have also previously targeted Chinese nationals.
Using an air ambulance, rescuers took the injured, including Chinese engineers, to a hospital in Dasu, about 10 km (6 miles) from the blast site, authorities said.
"Police and the bomb disposal squad are at the site," added regional official Arif Khan Yousufzai outside the hospital, adding that an investigation was awaited to ascertain details.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said it was in close contact with the Chinese embassy in Islamabad, adding in a statement: "Pakistan attaches great importance to the safety and security of Chinese nationals, projects and institutions."
2021 年 7 月 15 日 12:32
2018 年 5 月 18 日，土耳其總統塔伊普·埃爾多安 (Tayyip Erdogan) 在抗議最近在加沙 - 以色列邊境殺害巴勒斯坦抗議者和美國大使館遷往耶路撒冷時發表講話
土耳其在周四迎來了 2016 年未遂政變五週年，這是一場災難性的事件，引發了對該國北約盟友的懷疑和敵意，同時加速了與軍事聯盟最大競爭對手之一的伙伴關係。
埃爾多安長期以來一直批評北約盟國在 7 月 15 日晚上發生政變時沒有為他的國家辯護，導致 250 多人死亡。
據路透社報導，Hurriyet 日報 2 月報導稱，政府中最有權勢的人物之一、內政部長蘇萊曼·索伊盧指責美國是政變企圖的幕後黑手。
該報報導稱，五年前的 7 月 16 日，也就是政變後的那個晚上，索伊盧提出了同樣的要求。
Oner 現在是佛羅里達國際大學 Jack D. Gordon 公共政策研究所的高級政策分析師，他告訴媒體，埃爾多安在事後完全接管了該國的外交政策，讓外交部只執行他的決定而不是幫助製造它們。
近 300,000 人因被指控與政變有關而被關押，公共部門的 150,000 名工人被解僱或停職。
這場鎮壓導致西方對土耳其民主倒退提出了更強烈的擔憂，這種倒退在多年前隨著 2013 年反政府 Gezi 抗議活動而加速。
土耳其在 2015 年 11 月擊落一架戰鬥機，安卡拉稱這架戰鬥機進入其領空，但莫斯科表示它仍在敘利亞上空，人們擔心兩國正處於戰爭邊緣。
Turkey in foreign policy precarious 5 years after coup attempt - analysis
Facing a decline in the economy and his poll numbers, Erdogan is now trying to mend ties with Washington
By KRISTINA JOVANOVSKI / THE MEDIA LINE
JULY 15, 2021 12:32
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech during a protest against the recent killings of Palestinian protesters on the Gaza-Israel border and the US embassy move to Jerusalem, in Istanbul, Turkey May 18, 2018
(photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
Turkey marks the fifth anniversary of the 2016 coup attempt on Thursday, a cataclysmic event that fed suspicions and animosity towards the country’s Nato allies while accelerating a partnership with one of the military alliance’s greatest competitors.
Facing a decline in the economy and his poll numbers, Erdogan is now trying to mend ties with Washington, five years after his government and allies repeatedly accused the most powerful country in the world of conspiring to violently usurp his power.
"We saw the level of trust between Washington and Ankara at a historic low,” said Imdat Oner, the former deputy head of mission at Turkey’s embassy in Venezuela.
Erdogan has long criticized Nato allies of not coming to his country’s defense as the putsch unfolded on the night of July 15, which led to the deaths of more than 250 people.
Those within his government have even claimed that the US was behind the coup attempt.
According to the Reuters news agency, Hurriyet daily news reported in February that Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, one of the most powerful figures in the government, accused the US of being behind the coup attempt.
The newspaper reported Soylu made the same claim five years ago on July 16, the evening after the putsch.
Oner, who is now a senior policy analyst at the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, told The Media Line that Erdogan fully took over the country’s foreign policy in the aftermath, leaving the foreign ministry to simply apply his decisions rather than help make them.
“When Erdogan took the power and all control in foreign policy, the anti-Americanism [and] anti-Western sentiment and rhetoric became widespread among the government elites,” said Oner.
“Anti-Americanism became the core of the foreign policy.”
Those positions were pushed by Turkey’s pro-government media, which has increasingly dominated the press as opposition outlets were forced to shut down.
One of Turkey’s top pro-government tabloids stated that the CIA was behind the coup attempt a week after it was quashed.
Berk Esen, an assistant professor of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, said the pro-government media often reported that officers involved in the putsch had links to Nato, fuelling suspicions among the public.
“The coup attempt introduced mistrust in what was already deteriorating relations between the West and Turkey and that situation hasn’t changed much.” Esen told The Media Line.
That mistrust was partly due to the US refusing to extradite Turkish cleric Fethuallah Gulen, who has been living in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania since falling out with Erdogan, a former ally.
Washington said it needed evidence to extradite Gulen, which Ankara accuses of masterminding the coup attempt.
Turkey in the meantime has gone after Gulen’s supporters, both inside and outside of the country, but has also jailed opposition politicians and journalists in the ensuing crackdown.
Nearly 300, 000 people were put behind bars over accusations they were connected to the putsch and 150, 000 workers in the public sector have been fired or suspended.
“The story became about Turkey's human rights abuses and not sort of the trauma the country was facing,” said Aaron Stein, a research director at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.
“I certainly think that fueled ill will in Ankara because they were getting criticized for what they thought as moving to protect their government.”
The crackdown led the West to raise even stronger concerns over Turkey’s democratic backsliding that had been accelerating years ago with the 2013 anti-government Gezi protests.
Stein told The Media Line that Washington did publicly back Ankara, with Obama speaking out in support of the Turkish government in the early hours of the coup attempt but added that the US could have sent high-level officials to Turkey faster.
When then-US Vice President Joe Biden did go to Turkey a month after the putsch, Ankara launched its first offensive in Syria hours before his arrival.
Erdogan said his military would target a Kurdish militia in the country which Ankara considers allies of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Turkey (PKK), deemed a terrorist organization by Ankara, Washington and the EU
However, the Kurdish militia in Syria was allied with the US in its fights against the so-called Islamic State, a major fissure between Washington and Ankara that has lasted to this day.
“We still just have never really recovered from that in terms of trust in the bilateral relationship,” Stein said.
Esen said that at the same time the coup attempt made clear the major obstacles between Turkey and its Western allies, Russia also emerged as an alternative.
“The coup attempt was not the only reason but I think it prompted this mutually beneficial relationship,” Esen said.
It was feared the two countries were at the brink of war over Turkey’s downing of a fighter jet in November 2015 that Ankara said came into its airspace, but Moscow said it had remained over Syria.
Three weeks before the putsch, Moscow said it received an apology from Ankara over its downing of a Russian fighter jet.
Both countries could now collaborate, including in Syria where Turkey had gone against US interests.
Along with Iran, Ankara and Moscow have drawn up agreements to end periods of heightened fighting over the war-torn country.
Turkey also purchased a Russian anti-missile defense system which many analysts argue has become the biggest obstacle in relations with Washington.
The matter became even more serious when US President Joe Biden entered the White House, taking on a much tougher stance against Erdogan.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoan finding himself squeezed between two nuclear powers and competitors, the US and Russia.
“Turkey finds itself in a much more tight, delicate position,” Esen said.