2021.07.16 國際新聞導讀-黎巴嫩陷入崩潰、土耳其想改善對美歐以關係、美國伊朗核武協議談判將在新總統上任後有結果-2

2021-07-16·15 分鐘

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2021.07.16 國際新聞導讀-黎巴嫩陷入崩潰、土耳其想改善對美歐以關係、美國伊朗核武協議談判將在新總統上任後有結果-2

阿拉伯媒體的聲音:俄羅斯人和美國人都救不了我們
蘇聯人給納賽爾的最危險的建議也許是他們堅持認為埃及應該在 1967 年 6 月的戰爭中等待發動攻擊。
通過媒體行
2021 年 7 月 15 日 12:38

1958 年,埃及總統賈邁勒·阿卜杜勒·納賽爾(右)與蘇聯總理尼基塔·赫魯曉夫首次訪問莫斯科。 (Zeinab Mohamed/Flickr)
(照片來源:ZEINAB MOHAMED/FLICKR)
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俄羅斯人和美國人都救不了我們
埃及,Al-Watan,7 月 9 日
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俄羅斯人弊大於利。這是已故總統安瓦爾薩達特的觀點。那些經歷了 1970 年代的人都記得他的著名演講,他聲稱在 1973 年戰爭之前已將 15,000 名蘇聯專家驅逐出埃及,因為他希望這場戰鬥成為埃及的戰鬥。
與總統賈邁勒·阿卜杜勒·納賽爾相反,薩達特懷疑地看著蘇聯人。事實上,在埃及在納賽爾時代經歷的許多磨難中,俄羅斯人扮演了非常危險的角色。他們是建議納賽爾趕緊介入也門泥潭的人。俄羅斯人在 1967 年的挫折中也扮演了危險的角色。
納賽爾做出的許多導致戰爭爆發的決定都是基於他從蘇聯那裡收到的錯誤信息,即以色列正在與敘利亞接壤的邊界集結軍隊。該信息多次被證明是虛假的。
蘇聯人給納賽爾的最危險的建議也許是他們堅持認為埃及應該在 1967 年 6 月的戰爭中等待發動攻擊。納賽爾知道以色列會在六月的頭幾天發動襲擊,但他聽了蘇聯的看法,即吸收第一次襲擊,然後才對以色列進行報復對埃及來說是可取的。我不需要提醒你埃及因蘇聯這種不誠實的建議而付出的代價。
促使我想起蘇聯這一不幸角色的事件是俄羅斯目前圍繞復興大壩的立場,該大壩威脅著埃及和蘇丹。俄羅斯駐聯合國代表團一直在談論此事,並限制埃及對埃塞俄比亞採取行動的自由。在我看來,俄羅斯的立場並不令人意外。俄羅斯在非洲有數十億美元的投資,只是為了維護自己的國家利益。
文藝復興大壩問題是我們的問題。我們不能等待獲得任何國際參與者的許可,尤其是來自俄羅斯的許可,以確保我們對尼羅河水域的權利。沒有人會保護我們的主權,也沒有人會為我們而戰。尼羅河問題既不影響俄羅斯也不影響美國,因此期望兩國考慮埃及的最大利益是一個荒謬的前提。這種情況的解決方案掌握在我們手中。
所有人都同意,埃及長期以來一直耐心地解決這一問題。現在是對埃塞俄比亞採取行動並保護我們的國家利益和主權的時候了。
– 馬哈茂德·哈利勒
將美國貝魯特大學遷至科威特
科威特,Al-Qabas,7 月 10 日
貝魯特美國大學成立於 155 年前,由美國牧師丹尼爾·布利斯 (Daniel Bliss) 創立。它最初被命名為敘利亞新教學院,然後在大約一個世紀前採用現在的名稱。雖然它的創始人是一位傳教士,但它始終是一個世俗機構。第一年的教學課程包括阿拉伯語、英語、法語、土耳其語、拉丁語、數學、古代阿拉伯歷史和宗教史,包括猶太教。一年後,藥學和醫學成為其課程的一部分。它見證了許多著名校友畢業並在社會、政治和藝術領域扮演重要角色。
該大學還為貝魯特成為該地區的出版中心做出了貢獻,將其印刷機從馬耳他轉移到了黎巴嫩。該大學還遵循高教育標準和價值觀,以及嚴格的美國課程,並且是該地區第一所依靠批判性思維和公開討論原則而不歧視學生的大學。
隨著黎巴嫩安全、經濟、社會、政治甚至道德狀況的崩潰以及該大學面臨的財政困難,其管理部門決定關閉大門或搬到另一個國家。隨著關閉意向的消息傳開,科威特的名字出現在候選國家的首位。已經就此事與科威特官員接洽,並對這一想法表示熱烈歡迎。經過不斷的討論,科威特高等教育部為大學的轉移設定了以下條件:更名為“科威特國立大學”;將女子學院與男子學院分開;允許女性戴頭巾或面紗;允許在校園內建立伊斯蘭禮拜場所;阻止研究某些批判性理論,例如達爾文主義;允許慈善基金會在大學內設立分支機構;並確保大學 30% 的學生主修伊斯蘭研究。
大學管理部門在貝魯特開會,並在幾秒鐘內決定拒絕這些條件並考慮搬到另一個國家。當然,我上面描述的整個場景都不是真的。但它非常接近現實。如果美國大學級別的教育機構想將其活動轉移到科威特,那麼科威特的落後和黑暗勢力就會監視並破壞這樣一個不朽的壯舉。科威特官員不會抓住機會推動我們的國家向前發展,反而會在此過程中設置障礙和障礙。
我不知道為什麼,但我總是想起諾亞方舟的故事。如果諾亞生活在現代科威特,他會花費數月的時間來為他的方舟獲得許可證,而不會釘一根釘子。雖然科威特政府會坐下來審議諾亞的案子,但整片土地都會被淹沒。
– 艾哈邁德·薩拉夫 
在黎巴嫩馬爾賈永揮舞真主黨旗幟。(來源:AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
反恐國際戰爭從遜尼派轉向什葉派原教旨主義者
7 月 10 日,黎巴嫩,Al-Nahar
自 2001 年 9 月 11 日襲擊事件以來,由美國主導的國際反恐戰爭正在發生戲劇性的轉變。全球聯盟沒有將注意力集中在基地組織和伊斯蘭國這樣的組織上,而是努力將注意力重新轉移到與伊朗有聯繫的什葉派伊斯蘭組織上。
在阿富汗和伊拉克戰爭開始近 20 年後,華盛頓完成了從該地區撤出其士兵的工作,結束了一場針對世界各地遜尼派伊斯蘭原教旨主義團體的戰爭。現在這些組織的主要領導人,如奧薩馬·本·拉登、阿布·巴克爾·巴格達迪等大部分都被消滅了,伊斯蘭國也被從其主要據點連根拔起,西方的目光現在似乎已經盯上了在伊朗革命衛隊的指揮下運作的團體,如黎巴嫩的真主黨、伊拉克的人民動員部隊和敘利亞的什葉派民兵。
我們還注意到越來越多的國家將這些團體及其政治機構指定為恐怖組織。捷克共和國是第九個將真主黨的軍事和政治部門列為恐怖組織的歐洲國家。在這樣做的過程中,除了美國、阿拉伯聯盟和海灣合作委員會之外,它還加入了英國和德國等重要參與者的行列。此外,在過去幾個月中,華盛頓開始將伊拉克一些人民動員民兵的團體和領導人添加到恐怖觀察名單中。與此同時,德黑蘭對美國解除制裁的反壓力政策,依賴於利用其民兵對美國在該地區的基地和利益發動襲擊,將有助於使這一新出現的現實永久化。
美國總統喬拜登似乎決定不遵循前總統巴拉克奧巴馬的政策,該政策依靠無視伊朗的軍事行動來達成核協議。本屆政府對這些挑釁的反應不同。有跡象表明,美國可能會升級對敘利亞和伊拉克領域的報復性打擊。美軍在該地區的重新部署是另一個跡象。華盛頓的最新舉措是將其地面和聯合部隊的武器和裝備儲備以及指揮中心從卡塔爾的賽利亞基地轉移到約旦,以減少美國在海灣地區針對伊朗的目標數量。
在此背景下,伊朗和以色列之間的情報戰在數量和質量上都在升級。華盛頓反對真主黨的運動在這場戰爭中佔有重要地位,因為目前正在對地方當局在與該黨資助有關的各種案件中逮捕的人進行審判。美國和幾個南美國家的安全部門正在積極打擊涉嫌與真主黨合作的毒販和洗錢者。隨著這些步驟的進行,預計該運動將面臨越來越大的壓力。
– 里亞德·卡瓦吉 
加沙重建走向未知
沙特阿拉伯 Al-Jazirah,7 月 8 日
鑑於近年來對加沙地帶造成的破壞程度,我非常懷疑加沙地帶的重建是否真的會發生。在最近一輪的侵略中,加沙地帶的建築物、房屋和衛生基礎設施都遭受了全面破壞。以色列與加沙武裝民兵之間的力量平衡是不對稱的,以色列11天的痛苦罷工足以在加沙地帶造成嚴重破壞。雖然國際社會熱情地談論停火,然後進行全面的恢復和重建努力,但似乎沒有一個西方政府關心當今加沙地帶的人道主義局勢。
如果巴勒斯坦領導人更明智,它就會接受向加沙人民提供的任何援助。然而,哈馬斯領導層在其立場上仍然頑固不化,因此拒絕了可能損害其權威的外援。因此,我們在加沙的兄弟姐妹繼續受苦。哈馬斯,以及與此類似的伊斯蘭聖戰組織,在與以色列敵人的反复軍事對抗中一再誤判。這些錯誤使加沙變成了一個失敗的國家,尤其是自哈馬斯 2007 年武裝接管加沙以來。鑑於哈馬斯日益受到國際孤立,巴勒斯坦各派之間的內部關係不佳,以及阿拉伯世界對其他地緣政治問題的關注,支持加沙重建的渴望和熱情仍然很低。
巴勒斯坦人民理應過上和平和有尊嚴的生活。他們也應該得到代表他們利益和改善他們生計的領導。
– 哈立德·本·哈馬德·馬利克 
Voices from the Arab press: Neither Russians nor Americans will save us
Perhaps the most dangerous advice the Soviets gave Nasser was their insistence that Egypt should wait to initiate an attack during the June 1967 war.
By MEDIA LINE
JULY 15, 2021 12:38


EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT Gamal Abdel Nasser (right) with Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev, on his first visit to Moscow, 1958. (Zeinab Mohamed/Flickr)
(photo credit: ZEINAB MOHAMED/FLICKR)
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NEITHER THE RUSSIANS NOR THE AMERICANS WILL SAVE US
Al-Watan, Egypt, July 9
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
The Russians do more harm than good. This was the viewpoint of the late President Anwar Sadat. Those who lived through the 1970s remember his famous speech in which he claimed to have expelled 15,000 Soviet experts from Egypt before the 1973 war because he wanted the battle to be Egypt’s battle.
Sadat, in contrast to president Gamal Abdel Nasser, looked suspiciously at the Soviets. In fact, the Russians played a very dangerous role in many of the ordeals that Egypt went through during the Nasser era. They were the ones who advised Nasser to rush and intervene in the Yemeni quagmire. The Russians also had a dangerous role in the 1967 setback.
Many of the decisions taken by Nasser that resulted in the outbreak of the war, were based on incorrect information he received from the Soviets that Israel was amassing its forces on its borders with Syria. This information was proved to be false several times.
Perhaps the most dangerous advice the Soviets gave Nasser was their insistence that Egypt should wait to initiate an attack during the June 1967 war. Nasser knew that an Israeli strike would take place during the first days of June and yet he listened to the Soviet view that absorbing the first strike and only then retaliating against Israel would be preferable for Egypt. I don’t need to remind you of the price that Egypt paid as a result of such dishonest Soviet advice.
The event that prompts me to recall this unfortunate Soviet role is the current Russian position surrounding the Renaissance Dam, which threatens Egypt and Sudan. The Russian mission to the UN has been speaking unconvincingly about this matter and limiting Egypt’s freedom to act against Ethiopia. In my view, the Russian position isn’t surprising. Russia has billions of dollars of investments in Africa and is simply interested in preserving its own national interests.
The Renaissance Dam problem is our problem. We must not wait to receive permission from any international player, above all from Russia, to secure our rights to the Nile waters. No one will protect our sovereignty and no one will fight on our behalf. The Nile problem affects neither Russia nor America, so expecting the two countries to have Egypt’s best interests in mind is an absurd premise. The solution to the situation is in our hands.
Everyone agrees that Egypt has long addressed this situation with patience. The time has come to act against Ethiopia and to protect our national interest and sovereignty.
– Mahmoud Khalil
MOVING THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF BEIRUT TO KUWAIT
Al-Qabas, Kuwait, July 10
The American University of Beirut was founded 155 years ago by the American priest Daniel Bliss. It was first named the Syrian Protestant College, before adopting its current name about a century ago. Although its founder was a missionary, it was always a secular institution. The teaching curriculum in its first year included Arabic, English, French, Turkish, Latin, mathematics, ancient Arab history, and the history of religions, including Judaism. A year later, pharmacy and medicine became part of its curriculum. It saw many famous alumni graduate and assume meaningful roles in society, politics, and the arts.
The university also contributed to making Beirut a publishing center in the region when it transferred its printing press from Malta to Lebanon. The university also followed high educational standards and values, and a strict American curriculum, and was the first in the region to rely on the principles of critical thinking and open discussion without discrimination between students.
With the collapse of the security, economic, social, political, and even moral situation in Lebanon and the financial difficulties that the university is facing, its administration decided to close its doors or move to another country. With the spread of news of the intention to close, the name of Kuwait emerged at the top of the candidate countries to move to. Kuwaiti officials have been approached about the matter, and warmly welcomed the idea. Following ongoing discussions, the Kuwaiti Higher Education Ministry set the following conditions for the University’s transfer: changing the name to “Kuwait National University”; separating the women’s college from the men’s college; allowing women to wear a hijab or niqab; allowing the establishment of Islamic places of worship within its campus; preventing the study of certain critical theories such as Darwinism; allowing charitable foundations to establish branches within the university; and ensuring that 30% of the University’s students major in Islamic studies.
The university administration met in Beirut and decided, within seconds, to reject the conditions and to consider moving to another country. Of course, the entire scenario I described above isn’t true. But it was a very close representation of reality. If any educational body at the level of the American University thought of transferring its activities to Kuwait, the Kuwaiti forces of backwardness and darkness would be on the lookout and sabotage such a monumental feat from happening. Instead of embracing an opportunity to push our country forward, Kuwaiti officials would have imposed hurdles and barriers along the way.
I’m not sure why, but I’m always reminded of the story of Noah’s Ark. If Noah lived in modern-day Kuwait, he would have spent months trying to obtain a permit for his ark, without hammering a single nail. And while the Kuwaiti government would have sat and deliberated Noah’s case, the whole land would have been flooded.
– Ahmed Al-Sarraf 
WAVING THE Hezbollah flag in Marjayoun, Lebanon. (Credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
INT’L WAR ON TERROR SHIFTING FROM SUNNI TO SHI’ITE FUNDAMENTALISTS
Al-Nahar, Lebanon, July 10
The international war on terrorism that has been led by America since the attacks of September 11, 2001, is witnessing a dramatic transformation. Instead of focusing on groups like al-Qaida and ISIS, the global coalition is working to reshift its attention to Shi’ite Islamist groups linked to Iran.
Nearly 20 years after the start of the war in Afghanistan and then Iraq, Washington has completed the withdrawal of its soldiers from the region, ending a chapter of a war that targeted Sunni Islamic fundamentalist groups around the world. Now that most of the main leaders of these organizations, such as Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, have been eliminated, and ISIS has been uprooted from its major strongholds, it seems that the eyes of the West are now fixed on the groups operating under the command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and Shi’ite militias in Syria.
We’re also noticing more and more countries designate these groups and their political arms as terrorist organizations. The Czech Republic was the ninth European country to classify Hezbollah’s military and political wing as a terrorist organization. In doing so, it joined important actors like Britain and Germany, in addition to the United States, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. In addition, over the past few months, Washington began adding groups and leaders of some of the Popular Mobilization militias in Iraq to the terror watchlist. Meanwhile, Tehran’s policy of counterpressure on America to lift the sanctions, which relies on using its militias to launch strikes against American bases and interests in the region, will help perpetuate this emerging reality.
It seems that US President Joe Biden decided not to follow the policy of former president Barack Obama, which relied on ignoring Iran’s military operations in order to reach a nuclear agreement. The current administration is responding differently to these provocations. There are indications that the US may escalate its retaliatory strikes in the Syrian and Iraqi arenas. The repositioning of US forces in the region is yet another indication of that. Washington’s latest step is to transfer arms and equipment stores and command centers for its ground and joint forces from the Sailiya base in Qatar to Jordan, to reduce the number of American targets for Iran in the Gulf region.
Against this backdrop, the intelligence war between Iran and Israel is escalating in quantity and quality. Washington’s campaign against Hezbollah takes on an important dimension in this war, as trials are currently underway for people arrested by local authorities in various cases related to the party’s financing. Security services in the United States and several South American countries are actively cracking down on drug smugglers and money launderers who are suspected of working with Hezbollah. With these steps underway, the movement is expected to face growing pressure.
– Riad Kahwaji 
RECONSTRUCTION OF GAZA MOVING TOWARD THE UNKNOWN
Al-Jazirah, Saudi Arabia, July 8
I highly doubt that the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will actually take place given the extent of damage inflicted upon it in recent years. The Strip’s buildings, houses, and health infrastructure have all sustained comprehensive damage during the recent round of aggression. The balance of power between Israel and the armed militias in Gaza is asymmetrical, and 11 days of painful Israeli strikes were enough to wreak havoc in the Gaza Strip. And while the international community spoke passionately about a ceasefire that would be followed by a comprehensive rehabilitation and reconstruction effort, not a single Western government seems concerned with the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip today.
If the Palestinian leadership were wiser, it would have accepted any aid offered to the people of Gaza. However, the Hamas leadership remains intransigent in its positions and has therefore turned down foreign aid that might undermine its authority. Consequently, our brothers and sisters in Gaza continue to suffer. Hamas, and like it, the Islamic Jihad, have made repeated miscalculations in their repeated military confrontations with the Israeli enemy. These mistakes have turned Gaza into a failed state, especially since Hamas’s 2007 armed takeover of the Strip. In light of the growing international isolation of Hamas, the poor internal relations between the Palestinian factions, and the Arab’s world preoccupation with other geopolitical issues, there remains very little eagerness and enthusiasm to support Gaza reconstruction.
The Palestinian people deserve to live in peace and dignity. They also deserve leadership that represents their interests and improves their livelihoods.
– Khalid Bin Hamad Al-Malik 
Translated by Asaf Zilberfarb.
黎巴嫩正在慢慢死去
幕後:當前局勢對所有面臨伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊及其各種民兵專營權滲透的國家是一個嚴峻的警告。
作者:喬納森·斯派爾
2021 年 7 月 15 日 22:18


3 月,在貝魯特舉行的一場抗議黎巴嫩貨幣貶值和經濟困難加劇的抗議活動中,一名婦女坐在火旁。
(照片來源:穆罕默德·阿扎基爾/路透社)
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黎巴嫩目前正處於其歷史上最嚴重的經濟危機之中。燃料和電力每天都短缺,醫療用品長期缺乏,醫院缺乏基本藥物。大約 77% 的黎巴嫩家庭無法購買足夠的食物。黎巴嫩鎊在過去兩年中貶值了 90%。與此同時,由於外匯儲備越來越少,黎巴嫩公民每週不能提款超過 100 美元。這種情況已經到了無可挽回的地步,真正有可能出現廣泛的飢餓。今天,從各方面來看,黎巴嫩都是一個失敗和崩潰的國家。
國家是如何走到這一步的?不到二十年前,黎巴嫩正在重塑其作為地中海沿岸商業和旅遊中心的形象。以 2005 年迫使敘利亞撤軍的民眾動員命名的“3 月 14 日”運動風起雲湧。它被認為是當時美國政府地區民主化戰略為數不多的成功之一。2007 年,我在那段時間訪問了這個國家。然後可以在黎巴嫩年輕人中看出一種明顯的對正常生活的渴望。內戰已經成為一個消退的記憶。至少在遜尼派和基督徒中,剩下的就是對政治暴力可能捲土重來的恐懼。以色列在南部的佔領於 2000 年 5 月結束。正常狀態似乎觸手可及。
什麼地方出了錯?當時出了什麼問題也是可以辨別的。同時,很明顯,黎巴嫩有兩個權力機構。第一個,以 3 月 14 日運動為代表,表面上是前瞻性的,面向西方、面向商業和麵向常態。另一種力量是伊朗,通過其最古老的特許經營權,黎巴嫩真主黨運動。這種利益擁有自己的軍事力量,其軍事力量超過了國家的力量,並使該國的其他非正規軍事存在相形見絀。它也有自己的經濟、自己的收入來源、自己的走私路線。
伊朗方面的計劃是兩個黎巴嫩應該無限期地繼續存在。前者是為了提供一個方便的正常性和合法性外殼,後者可以在德黑蘭與以色列的長期戰爭中繼續其分配的任務。3 月 14 日項目的支持者傾向於避免討論硬實力問題。回想起來,這證明是致命的。
3 月 14 日的黎巴嫩可能會捍衛其國家願景的任何機會都在 2008 年 5 月和 6 月的事件中結束。在貝魯特街頭的短暫衝突中,阿邁勒和真主黨的軍隊輕蔑地將親 3 月 14 日的遜尼派和德魯茲派軍隊進行了隨意的軍事動員。
從這一刻起,模具就被澆鑄了。很明顯,不會再有人試圖真正抵制伊朗在黎巴嫩的項目。取而代之的是混淆和否認。伊朗的做法完全符合黎巴嫩人忽視現實的願望。
我記得 2008 年夏天,在貝魯特暴力事件發生後不久,我在倫敦的一次活動中向主要是年輕黎巴嫩人的聽眾發表講話。我警告說,該國新興的前景是伊朗佔領。也許可以理解,沒有人想從以色列人那裡聽到這些。“我們寧願擁有他們而不是你,”一名年輕的黎巴嫩婦女喊道,贏得了觀眾的掌聲。隨它吧。現在她有了她的願望,以及它的後果。
在 2008 年之後的幾年裡,事件呈螺旋式下降。敘利亞內戰為黎巴嫩帶來了大約 180 萬難民,進一步加劇了該國脆弱的基礎設施的壓力。這場戰爭對旅遊業造成了嚴重打擊,旅遊業佔黎巴嫩 GDP 的 7.5% 左右。2015 年至 2016 年,沙特和美國對伊朗在該國擁有權力的現實日益不滿。2016 年初,利雅得宣布從黎巴嫩中央銀行提取存款。在此之前,取消了對黎巴嫩武裝和安全部隊的 40 億美元援助。
美國 2015 年的“真主黨國際融資預防法”對金融服務業造成了沉重打擊,這是黎巴嫩經濟的另一個關鍵要素。沙特阿拉伯、巴林、科威特和阿拉伯聯合酋長國當時發布了禁止前往黎巴嫩旅行的警告。這結束了該國作為尋求海灣限制的適當喘息的遊客的寬鬆遊樂場的傳統角色。
在這個階段,黎巴嫩正在尋求管理 690 億美元的公共債務,總計佔 GDP 的 150%。但隨著官方經濟的衰落,平行的伊朗/真主黨影子經濟繁榮起來。然而,並不是以普通公民受益的方式。黎巴嫩和敘利亞之間的漏洞或真主黨監督的邊界允許走私石油進口並在敘利亞轉售,以造福真主黨。在敘利亞製造的苯丙胺藥丸和大麻以另一種方式走私,通過真主黨監督的路線在歐洲城市或海灣找到目的地。毋庸置疑,這個新興行業的利潤都沒有用於償還國債,也沒有用於使搖搖欲墜的公共基礎設施受益。
2020 年 3 月,在全國多宗派抗議腐敗、公共服務差、青年失業和管理不善的背景下,黎巴嫩首次出現拖欠債務的情況。國際貨幣基金組織批准了一項改革計劃,但在 2020 年 8 月貝魯特港爆炸後政府辭職後,談判陷入停滯。黎巴嫩經濟在 2020 年收縮了 20%。
這就是黎巴嫩當前嚴重危機的背景。所有因素——美國製裁、沙特和國際撤回援助和投資、隨之而來的債務違約和信心喪失、由此導致的貨幣貶值、僅自利的影子經濟以及癱瘓的政治體系——都可以直接追溯到扭曲效應伊朗在黎巴嫩土地上的普遍項目的存在帶來了。
從這個角度來看,目前的局勢對所有面臨伊斯蘭革命衛隊及其各種民兵專營權滲透的國家來說都是一個嚴峻的警告。他們擅長建設準軍事力量並將其轉化為政治權力。他們對經濟學一無所知,也不感興趣。結果,他們在一個國家取得事實上的權力的最終結果將是該國家最終的毀滅和貧困。黎巴嫩現在是這一進程的案例研究。
從以色列的角度來看,除了繼續守衛邊界外,別無他法。沒有理由認為黎巴嫩目前的混亂會使伊朗人和他們的代理人傾向於在南部進行軍事冒險。當飢餓和基礎設施崩潰成為現實時,沒有人可能會圍繞民族色彩團結起來——黎巴嫩的民族色彩不行,當然伊朗及其當地代理人的色彩也不行。
關於任何國際反應,國際援助應視伊朗代理人的解除武裝和政治體制的徹底改革而定。任何其他補救措施都有可能為黎巴嫩目前由伊朗造成的功能失調提供支持。
關鍵點:黎巴嫩是第一個經歷內部崩潰的阿拉伯國家,因此也是第一個收到伊斯蘭革命衛隊政治軍事接管意圖的國家。考慮到當地的差異,伊朗目前正在伊拉克、敘利亞和也門進行類似的努力。黎巴嫩是第一個被這個項目帶到毀滅點的阿拉伯國家。當前事件的意義遠遠超出了黎巴嫩的邊界。伊朗對黎巴嫩的緩慢死亡負有責任。
Lebanon is dying a slow death
BEHIND THE LINES: The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
By JONATHAN SPYER
JULY 15, 2021 22:18


A WOMAN sits near a fire during a protest in March in Beirut against the fall in the Lebanese currency and mounting economic hardship.
(photo credit: MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)
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Lebanon is currently in the grip of the worst economic crisis in its history. There are daily shortages of fuel and electricity, a chronic lack of medical supplies, and an absence of essential medicines in hospitals. Some 77% of Lebanese households are unable to purchase sufficient food. The Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value over the last two years. Lebanese citizens, meanwhile, are prevented from withdrawing more than $100 per week, as foreign currency reserves grow thin. The situation is reaching a point of no return, with the real possibility of widespread hunger. Lebanon is, today, by all measures a failed and collapsing state.
How has the country reached this point? Less than two decades ago, Lebanon was revamping its image as a center of commerce and tourism on the Mediterranean coast. The “March 14” movement, named after the popular mobilization which forced a Syrian withdrawal in 2005, was riding high. It was presented as one of the few successes of what was then the US administration’s strategy of regional democratization. I visited the country in that period, in 2007. A palpable longing for normality could then be discerned among younger Lebanese. The civil war was already a receding memory. What remained of it, among Sunnis and Christians at least, was a kind of dread of the possibility that political violence might return. The Israeli occupation in the south had ended in May 2000. Normality seemed within reach.
What went wrong? What went wrong was discernible also back then. Also then, it was evident that there were two powers in Lebanon. The first, as represented by the March 14 movement, was ostensibly forward-looking, oriented toward the West, toward commerce and toward normality. The other power was that of Iran, via its oldest franchise, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. This interest had its own military power that outmatched that of the state and dwarfed the other irregular military presences in the country. It had its own economy, too, its own sources of income, its own smuggling routes.
The project of the Iranian element was that the two Lebanons should continue to exist indefinitely. The former was to provide a convenient carapace of normality and legitimacy beneath which the latter could continue its allotted tasks in Tehran’s long war against Israel. Supporters of the March 14 project had a tendency to avoid the discussion of hard-power issues. This in retrospect was to prove fatal.
Any chance that the Lebanon of March 14 might mount a defense in arms of its vision of the country ended in the events of May and June 2008. In a brief conflict on the streets of Beirut, the forces of Amal and Hezbollah contemptuously brushed aside the haphazard military mobilizations of the pro-March 14 Sunni and Druze forces.
From this point on, the die was cast. It was clear that there would be no further attempt at real resistance to the Iranian project in Lebanon. What there would be instead would be obfuscation and denial. The Iranian approach fitted perfectly the desire of the Lebanese to ignore reality.
I remember addressing an audience of mainly young Lebanese in London at an event in summer 2008, shortly after the violent events in Beirut. I warned that the emerging prospect in the country was of Iranian occupation. No one, perhaps understandably, wanted to hear this from an Israeli. “We’d rather have them than you,” one young Lebanese woman called out, to applause from the audience. So be it. Now she has her wish, and its consequences.
IN THE YEARS subsequent to 2008, events followed a downward spiral. The Syrian civil war brought some 1.8 million refugees to Lebanon, further straining the country’s fragile infrastructure. The war dealt a crippling blow to the tourism sector, which had accounted for around 7.5% of Lebanon’s GDP. Growing Saudi and US discontent at the reality of Iranian power in the country came to a head in 2015-2016. In early 2016, Riyadh announced the withdrawal of its deposits from the Central Bank of Lebanon. This followed the cancellation of $4 billion of aid to the Lebanese armed and security forces.
The US “Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act” of 2015 hit hard at the financial services sector, another key element in the Lebanese economy. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates issued advisories against travel to Lebanon at that time. This ended the country’s traditional role as a permissive playground for visitors seeking a congenial respite from Gulf restrictions.
At this stage, Lebanon was seeking to manage a public debt of $69 billion, totaling 150% of GDP. But as the official economy foundered, the parallel Iran/Hezbollah shadow economy prospered. Not, however, in such a way that the average citizen benefited. The porous or Hezbollah-supervised borders between Lebanon and Syria allowed for smuggling of oil imports and their resale in Syria, to the benefit of Hezbollah. Captagon amphetamine pills manufactured in Syria, and cannabis were smuggled the other way, finding their destination in European cities or in the Gulf via Hezbollah-supervised routes. Needless to say, none of the profits from this burgeoning sector went to service the national debt, or to benefit the crumbling public infrastructure.
In March 2020, against the background of countrywide, multi-sectarian protests against corruption, poor public service, youth unemployment and mismanagement, Lebanon defaulted for the first time on its debt payments. A reform plan was approved by the International Monetary Fund, but following the government’s resignation after the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020, negotiations became stalled. The Lebanese economy contracted by 20% in 2020.
This is the background to the current grave crisis in Lebanon. All the elements – US sanctions, Saudi and international withdrawal of aid and investment, subsequent debt default and loss of confidence, resulting currency devaluation, a shadow economy benefiting only itself, and a paralyzed political system – are all directly traceable to the distorting effect that the presence of the pervasive Iranian project on Lebanese soil has brought.
From this point of view, the current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises. These are good at building paramilitary muscle and converting it into political power. They have no knowledge of or interest in economics. As a result, the net outcome of their taking of de facto power in a country will be that country’s eventual ruin and impoverishment. Lebanon is now the case study for this process.
From Israel’s point of view, there is little to be done but to continue to guard the borders. There is no reason to suppose that the current chaos in Lebanon will incline the Iranians and their proxies toward military adventures in the south. When hunger and infrastructural collapse are a real prospect, no one is likely to rally around the national colors – not those of Lebanon, and certainly not those of Iran and its local agents.
Regarding any international response, international aid should be made contingent on the disarming of the Iranian proxy, and the thorough reform of the political system. Any other remedy runs the danger of offering support to Lebanon’s current Iran-created dysfunctionality.
The key point: Lebanon was the first Arab state to undergo internal collapse, and consequently the first to receive the intentions of the IRGC’s brand of political-military takeover. With allowance for local variations, similar Iranian efforts are now underway in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Lebanon is the first Arab state to have been brought to the point of destruction by this project. The significance of the current events extends far beyond Lebanon’s borders. Iran is responsible for the slow death of Lebanon.
伊朗尚未準備好進行核談判,直到 Raisi 接管-source
“我們現在談論的可能不是八月中旬之前。”
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2021 年 7 月 15 日 12:21


代表們等待上個月在奧地利維也納舉行的關於恢復 2015 年伊朗核協議的談判的開始。
(圖片來源:歐盟駐維也納代表團/通過路透社提供的資料)
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一位外交消息人士周三表示,在伊朗當選總統易卜拉欣·賴西 (Ebrahim Raisi) 的政府開始之前,伊朗不准備恢復關於重新遵守 2015 年核協議的談判。
這位不願透露姓名的消息人士表示,伊朗已將此事轉達給在美伊間接談判中充當對話者的歐洲官員,目前的想法是維也納會談不會在 8 月中旬之前恢復。
“他們不准備在新政府之前回來,”消息人士說,並不清楚這是否意味著直到 Raisi 於 8 月 5 日正式接任,還是直到他的政府就位。
“我們現在談論的可能不是八月中旬之前,”消息人士補充道。
關於恢復 2015 年核協議的談判於 4 月開始,正式名稱為聯合綜合行動計劃 (JCPOA),但自 6 月 20 日第六輪結束以來似乎陷入僵局,沒有跡象表明何時可以恢復。
該協議由民主黨前總統巴拉克奧巴馬談判和共和黨前總統唐納德特朗普放棄,在伊朗接受限制其核計劃以換取解除經濟制裁之間取得平衡。
美國國務院發言人證實,伊朗因總統換屆而要求給予更多時間。
國務院發言人說:“我們準備繼續談判,但伊朗人要求有更多時間來處理他們的總統過渡。”
“當伊朗完成其進程後,我們準備計劃返回維也納繼續我們的會談,”她補充說。“我們仍然有興趣尋求共同遵守 JCPOA,儘管正如(國務卿安東尼·布林肯)明確表示的那樣,這項提議不會無限期地擺在桌面上。”
Iran not ready for nuclear talks until Raisi takes over -source
"We are now talking probably not before mid-August."
By REUTERS
JULY 15, 2021 12:21


DELEGATES WAIT for the start of talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, in Vienna, Austria, last month.
(photo credit: EU DELEGATION IN VIENNA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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Iran is not prepared to resume negotiations on coming back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal until Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi's administration has begun, a diplomatic source said on Wednesday.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran had conveyed this to European officials acting as interlocutors in the indirect US-Iranian negotiations and that the current thinking is the Vienna talks will not resume before mid-August.
"They are not prepared to come back before the new government," said the source, saying it was not clear whether this meant until Raisi formally takes over on Aug. 5 or until his government is in place.
"We are now talking probably not before mid-August," added the source.
Talks began in April on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, formally named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but have appeared stuck since their sixth round ended on June 20, with no sign when they may resume.
The agreement, which Democratic former President Barack Obama negotiated and Republican former President Donald Trump abandoned, struck a balance between Iran accepting limits to its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.
A US State Department spokesperson confirmed that Iran had asked for more time because of its presidential transition.
"We were prepared to continue negotiating but the Iranians requested more time to deal with their presidential transition," said the State Department spokesperson.
"When Iran is done with its process, we are prepared to plan our return to Vienna to continue with our talks," she added. "We remain interested in seeking mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA, though as (Secretary of State Antony Blinken) has made clear, this offer will not be on the table indefinitely."
巴基斯坦公共汽車爆炸造成13人死亡,中國指責炸彈;9名遇難者中國人
巴基斯坦外交部表示,機械故障導致氣體洩漏,導致爆炸。
通過路透
2021 年 7 月 14 日 17:08


2021 年 7 月 14 日,巴基斯坦上科希斯坦,這是從視頻拍攝的靜態圖像,一輛載有中國公民的巴士在巴基斯坦上科希斯坦發生爆炸後墜入峽谷,人們將輪床推向達蘇一家醫院外的救護車。
(圖片來源:路透社電視台)
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巴基斯坦白沙瓦/北京——週三,巴基斯坦北部一輛公共汽車發生爆炸,造成 13 人死亡,其中包括 9 名中國公民,北京稱這是一次炸彈襲擊,但伊斯蘭堡稱其為車輛故障。
當地政府和警方消息人士告訴路透社,爆炸將巴士送過山溝後,兩名巴基斯坦士兵也遇難。
作為北京“一帶一路”倡議的一部分,中國工程師和巴基斯坦建築工人在爆炸發生地西部開伯爾-普圖赫瓦省從事水電項目工作數年。
中國駐巴基斯坦大使館證實,該國9名國民死亡。中國外交部稱此次爆炸為炸彈襲擊,但沒有提供更多細節,表示哀悼,並敦促徹底調查和保護其人員和項目。
巴基斯坦外交部表示,機械故障導致氣體洩漏,導致爆炸。
然而,該省最高警察官員、監察長 Moazzam Jah Ansari 早些時候告訴路透社,涉嫌犯規。“看起來像是蓄意破壞,”他說。
一位不願透露姓名的哈扎拉地區高級行政官員說,這輛巴士載著 30 多名中國工程師前往上科希斯坦的達蘇大壩。
數十億的投資
達蘇水電項目是中巴經濟走廊 (CPEC) 的一部分,該項目投資 650 億美元,旨在將中國西部與巴基斯坦南部港口瓜達爾港連接起來。
中共官方人民日報旗下的中國小報《環球時報》的一篇社論說:“這顯然是經過精心策劃並得到信息支持的恐怖主義行為。”最近幾年。
在巴基斯坦工作的中國人此前曾遭到襲擊,特別是在西南部的俾路支省,分離主義武裝分子在中國開發礦山和港口的州發動了反抗當局的叛亂。
分裂分子還襲擊了中國在南部城市卡拉奇的領事館。此外,伊斯蘭激進分子此前也曾針對中國公民。
當局說,救援人員使用空中救護車將傷者(包括中國工程師)送往距離爆炸現場約 10 公里(6 英里)的大蘇醫院。
“警方和拆彈小組都在現場,”醫院外的地區官員 Arif Khan Yousufzai 補充說,並補充說正在等待調查以確定細節。
巴基斯坦外交部表示,它與中國駐伊斯蘭堡大使館保持密切聯繫,並在一份聲明中補充說:“巴基斯坦高度重視中國公民、項目和機構的安全和保障。”
China blames bomb after Pakistan bus blast kills 13; 9 victims Chinese
Pakistan's foreign ministry said a mechanical failure caused a gas leak which led to the explosion.
By REUTERS
JULY 14, 2021 17:08


People wheel a gurney towards an ambulance outside a hospital in Dasu, after a bus with Chinese nationals on board plunged into a ravine in Upper Kohistan following a blast, Pakistan July 14, 2021 in this still image taken from video.
(photo credit: REUTERS TV)
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PESHAWAR, Pakistan/BEIJING - A blast on a bus killed 13 people in north Pakistan on Wednesday, including nine Chinese nationals in what Beijing said was a bomb attack but Islamabad called a vehicle failure.
Two Pakistani soldiers were also among the dead after the explosion sent the bus over a ravine, local government and police sources told Reuters.
Chinese engineers and Pakistani construction workers have for several years been working on hydroelectric projects as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative in the western province of Khyber-Paktunkhwa, where the blast occurred.
China's embassy in Pakistan confirmed that nine of its nationals died. Terming the explosion a bomb attack but not giving more details, the Chinese foreign ministry offered condolences and urged both a thorough investigation and protection of its personnel and projects.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said a mechanical failure caused a gas leak which led to the explosion.

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However, the province's top police official, Inspector General Moazzam Jah Ansari, earlier told Reuters foul play was suspected. "Looks like sabotage," he said.

A senior administrative officer of the Hazara region, who asked not to be named, said the bus was carrying more than 30 Chinese engineers to the Dasu dam in Upper Kohistan.

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The Dasu hydroelectric project is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $65 billion investment plan aiming to link western China to the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar.
"This is clearly an act of terrorism that has been carefully planned and was supported by information," said an editorial in Global Times, a Chinese tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, calling it the most serious attack on Chinese nationals in recent years.
Chinese working in Pakistan have been attacked previously, particularly in the south-western province of Balochistan where separatist militants have waged an insurgency against authorities in a state where China develops mines and a port.
The separatists have also attacked the Chinese consulate in the southern city of Karachi. Additionally, Islamist militants have also previously targeted Chinese nationals.
Using an air ambulance, rescuers took the injured, including Chinese engineers, to a hospital in Dasu, about 10 km (6 miles) from the blast site, authorities said.
"Police and the bomb disposal squad are at the site," added regional official Arif Khan Yousufzai outside the hospital, adding that an investigation was awaited to ascertain details.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said it was in close contact with the Chinese embassy in Islamabad, adding in a statement: "Pakistan attaches great importance to the safety and security of Chinese nationals, projects and institutions."
政變未遂5年後,土耳其的外交政策岌岌可危——分析
面對經濟下滑和他的民意調查數字,埃爾多安現在正試圖修補與華盛頓的關係
作者:克里斯蒂娜·約万諾夫斯基/媒體行
2021 年 7 月 15 日 12:32


2018 年 5 月 18 日,土耳其總統塔伊普·埃爾多安 (Tayyip Erdogan) 在抗議最近在加沙 - 以色列邊境殺害巴勒斯坦抗議者和美國大使館遷往耶路撒冷時發表講話
(圖片來源:路透社/穆拉德·塞澤)
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土耳其在周四迎來了 2016 年未遂政變五週年,這是一場災難性的事件,引發了對該國北約盟友的懷疑和敵意,同時加速了與軍事聯盟最大競爭對手之一的伙伴關係。
面對經濟下滑和他的民意調查數字,埃爾多安現在正試圖修復與華盛頓的關係,五年前他的政府和盟友一再指責世界上最強大的國家密謀以暴力篡奪他的權力。
“我們看到華盛頓和安卡拉之間的信任水平處於歷史低位,”土耳其駐委內瑞拉大使館前任副團長伊姆達特奧納說。
埃爾多安長期以來一直批評北約盟國在 7 月 15 日晚上發生政變時沒有為他的國家辯護,導致 250 多人死亡。
他的政府內部人士甚至聲稱美國是政變企圖的幕後黑手。
據路透社報導,Hurriyet 日報 2 月報導稱,政府中最有權勢的人物之一、內政部長蘇萊曼·索伊盧指責美國是政變企圖的幕後黑手。
該報報導稱,五年前的 7 月 16 日,也就是政變後的那個晚上,索伊盧提出了同樣的要求。
Oner 現在是佛羅里達國際大學 Jack D. Gordon 公共政策研究所的高級政策分析師,他告訴媒體,埃爾多安在事後完全接管了該國的外交政策,讓外交部只執行他的決定而不是幫助製造它們。
“當埃爾多安掌權並控制外交政策時,反美主義[和]反西方情緒和言論在政府精英中變得普遍,”奧納說。
“反美主義成為外交政策的核心。”
這些立場是由土耳其親政府媒體推動的,隨著反對派媒體被迫關閉,這些媒體越來越多地佔據新聞媒體的主導地位。
土耳其最大的親政府小報之一表示,在政變被推翻一周後,中央情報局是政變企圖的幕後黑手。
安卡拉比爾肯特大學國際關係助理教授伯克·埃森表示,親政府媒體經常報導參與政變的官員與北約有聯繫,這加劇了公眾的懷疑。
“政變企圖引發了對西方和土耳其之間已經惡化的關係的不信任,這種情況並沒有太大改變。” 埃森告訴媒體專線。
這種不信任的部分原因是美國拒絕引渡土耳其神職人員法特瓦拉·古倫,自從與前盟友埃爾多安鬧翻後,他一直在賓夕法尼亞州自我流放。
華盛頓表示需要證據來引渡居倫,安卡拉指責居倫策劃了政變企圖。
與此同時,土耳其在國內和國外追捕居倫的支持者,但也在隨後的鎮壓中監禁了反對派政客和記者。
近 300,000 人因被指控與政變有關而被關押,公共部門的 150,000 名工人被解僱或停職。
位於費城的外交政策研究所的研究主任亞倫斯坦說:“故事變成了關於土耳其侵犯人權的行為,而不是該國所面臨的創傷。”
“我當然認為這激起了安卡拉的惡意,因為他們因為他們認為採取行動保護政府而受到批評。”
這場鎮壓導致西方對土耳其民主倒退提出了更強烈的擔憂,這種倒退在多年前隨著 2013 年反政府 Gezi 抗議活動而加速。
斯坦因告訴媒體專線,華盛頓確實公開支持安卡拉,奧巴馬在政變企圖的早期就公開表示支持土耳其政府,但補充說美國本可以更快地向土耳其派遣高級官員。
當時任美國副總統喬拜登在政變一個月後確實前往土耳其時,安卡拉在他抵達前幾個小時在敘利亞發動了第一次攻勢。
埃爾多安表示,他的軍隊將針對土耳其境內的庫爾德民兵組織,土耳其認為該國是土耳其庫爾德工人黨(PKK)的盟友,該國被安卡拉、華盛頓和歐盟視為恐怖組織。
然而,敘利亞的庫爾德民兵在與所謂的伊斯蘭國的鬥爭中與美國結盟,這是華盛頓和安卡拉之間一直持續到今天的重大裂痕。
“就雙邊關係的信任而言,我們仍然從未真正從中恢復過來,”斯坦說。
埃森說,在政變企圖明確土耳其與其西方盟國之間的主要障礙的同時,俄羅斯也作為替代方案出現。
“政變企圖不是唯一的原因,但我認為它促成了這種互利關係,”埃森說。
土耳其在 2015 年 11 月擊落一架戰鬥機,安卡拉稱這架戰鬥機進入其領空,但莫斯科表示它仍在敘利亞上空,人們擔心兩國正處於戰爭邊緣。
在政變發生前三週,莫斯科表示收到了安卡拉就其擊落俄羅斯戰鬥機一事的道歉。
兩國現在可以合作,包括在土耳其違背美國利益的敘利亞​​。
與伊朗一起,安卡拉和莫斯科已經起草了協議,以結束圍繞這個飽受戰爭蹂躪的國家的激烈戰鬥。
土耳其還購買了俄羅斯的反導彈防禦系統,許多分析人士認為,這已成為與華盛頓關係的最大障礙。
當美國總統喬拜登進入白宮時,事情變得更加嚴重,對埃爾多安採取更強硬的立場。
雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安總統發現自己夾在兩個核大國和競爭對手之間,美國和俄羅斯。
“土耳其發現自己處於更加緊張、微妙的境地,”埃森說。
Turkey in foreign policy precarious 5 years after coup attempt - analysis
Facing a decline in the economy and his poll numbers, Erdogan is now trying to mend ties with Washington
By KRISTINA JOVANOVSKI / THE MEDIA LINE
JULY 15, 2021 12:32


Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech during a protest against the recent killings of Palestinian protesters on the Gaza-Israel border and the US embassy move to Jerusalem, in Istanbul, Turkey May 18, 2018
(photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
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Turkey marks the fifth anniversary of the 2016 coup attempt on Thursday, a cataclysmic event that fed suspicions and animosity towards the country’s Nato allies while accelerating a partnership with one of the military alliance’s greatest competitors.
Facing a decline in the economy and his poll numbers, Erdogan is now trying to mend ties with Washington, five years after his government and allies repeatedly accused the most powerful country in the world of conspiring to violently usurp his power.
"We saw the level of trust between Washington and Ankara at a historic low,” said Imdat Oner, the former deputy head of mission at Turkey’s embassy in Venezuela.
Erdogan has long criticized Nato allies of not coming to his country’s defense as the putsch unfolded on the night of July 15, which led to the deaths of more than 250 people.
Those within his government have even claimed that the US was behind the coup attempt.
According to the Reuters news agency, Hurriyet daily news reported in February that Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, one of the most powerful figures in the government, accused the US of being behind the coup attempt.
The newspaper reported Soylu made the same claim five years ago on July 16, the evening after the putsch.
Oner, who is now a senior policy analyst at the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, told The Media Line that Erdogan fully took over the country’s foreign policy in the aftermath, leaving the foreign ministry to simply apply his decisions rather than help make them.
“When Erdogan took the power and all control in foreign policy, the anti-Americanism [and] anti-Western sentiment and rhetoric became widespread among the government elites,” said Oner.
“Anti-Americanism became the core of the foreign policy.”
Those positions were pushed by Turkey’s pro-government media, which has increasingly dominated the press as opposition outlets were forced to shut down.
One of Turkey’s top pro-government tabloids stated that the CIA was behind the coup attempt a week after it was quashed.
Berk Esen, an assistant professor of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, said the pro-government media often reported that officers involved in the putsch had links to Nato, fuelling suspicions among the public.
“The coup attempt introduced mistrust in what was already deteriorating relations between the West and Turkey and that situation hasn’t changed much.” Esen told The Media Line.
That mistrust was partly due to the US refusing to extradite Turkish cleric Fethuallah Gulen, who has been living in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania since falling out with Erdogan, a former ally.
Washington said it needed evidence to extradite Gulen, which Ankara accuses of masterminding the coup attempt.
Turkey in the meantime has gone after Gulen’s supporters, both inside and outside of the country, but has also jailed opposition politicians and journalists in the ensuing crackdown.
Nearly 300, 000 people were put behind bars over accusations they were connected to the putsch and 150, 000 workers in the public sector have been fired or suspended.
“The story became about Turkey's human rights abuses and not sort of the trauma the country was facing,” said Aaron Stein, a research director at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.
“I certainly think that fueled ill will in Ankara because they were getting criticized for what they thought as moving to protect their government.”
The crackdown led the West to raise even stronger concerns over Turkey’s democratic backsliding that had been accelerating years ago with the 2013 anti-government Gezi protests.
Stein told The Media Line that Washington did publicly back Ankara, with Obama speaking out in support of the Turkish government in the early hours of the coup attempt but added that the US could have sent high-level officials to Turkey faster.
When then-US Vice President Joe Biden did go to Turkey a month after the putsch, Ankara launched its first offensive in Syria hours before his arrival.
Erdogan said his military would target a Kurdish militia in the country which Ankara considers allies of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Turkey (PKK), deemed a terrorist organization by Ankara, Washington and the EU
However, the Kurdish militia in Syria was allied with the US in its fights against the so-called Islamic State, a major fissure between Washington and Ankara that has lasted to this day.
“We still just have never really recovered from that in terms of trust in the bilateral relationship,” Stein said.
Esen said that at the same time the coup attempt made clear the major obstacles between Turkey and its Western allies, Russia also emerged as an alternative.
“The coup attempt was not the only reason but I think it prompted this mutually beneficial relationship,” Esen said.
It was feared the two countries were at the brink of war over Turkey’s downing of a fighter jet in November 2015 that Ankara said came into its airspace, but Moscow said it had remained over Syria.
Three weeks before the putsch, Moscow said it received an apology from Ankara over its downing of a Russian fighter jet.
Both countries could now collaborate, including in Syria where Turkey had gone against US interests.
Along with Iran, Ankara and Moscow have drawn up agreements to end periods of heightened fighting over the war-torn country.
Turkey also purchased a Russian anti-missile defense system which many analysts argue has become the biggest obstacle in relations with Washington.
The matter became even more serious when US President Joe Biden entered the White House, taking on a much tougher stance against Erdogan.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoan finding himself squeezed between two nuclear powers and competitors, the US and Russia.
“Turkey finds itself in a much more tight, delicate position,” Esen said.