本集介紹

2021.04.07 美國伊朗維也納談判開始、俄羅斯普丁修憲續延任至2036年83歲、約旦政變內幕、以色列國會議員宣誓就職總統首先任命納唐亞胡組閣

以色列國會4/6宣誓就職，總統瑞夫林在經過與所有政黨領袖會晤並多番考量後，表示雖然沒有任何一個政黨有組成內閣的跡象，但還是首先授權納唐亞胡來組織內閣。納唐亞湖官司纏身正接受法院審判中。他有4週+2週延長的時間來組閣，如果失敗則總統將另外任命其他黨魁來嘗試組閣，一樣是六週。在失敗則可委託任何一位國會議員來組閣，都失敗後就解散國會重新大選。

美國和伊朗在維也納間接談判的期望
伊朗和美國在維也納舉行間接談判，作為恢復德黑蘭與全球大國之間2015年核協議的更廣泛談判的一部分。
通過OMRI NAHMIAS
2021年4月5日22:02
華盛頓–美國和伊朗代表團將於週二抵達維也納，就可能恢復2015年核協議進行間接回合談判。
2011年至2017年擔任防擴散助理國務卿的托馬斯·Countryman說：“有兩個國家無法直接參與的原因，但在這種情況下，問題不在於美國，而在於美國。從 伊朗方面來說，這與他們自己複雜的政治局勢有關。介於這兩個國家之間的國家-英國，法國，德國，以及俄羅斯和中國，都在試圖確定伊朗和美國為完全遵守JCPOA而必須採取的行動。”
他對《耶路撒冷郵報》說，與調解員進行間接談判並不是一種常見的外交手段。他說，下一步將是確定雙方在一定時期內將同時採取或分階段採取的步驟的時間表。
“這就是任務，” Countryman說。但是“顯然，如果美國和伊朗直接就我們如何實現2015年JCPOA進行對話，這會更容易。”
國務卿安東尼·布林肯（Antony Blinken）在確認聽證會上說，與德黑蘭進行外交的大門是敞開的，但是雙方花了將近三個月的時間才安排第一次間接會議。
曼德曼說：“這與德黑蘭和華盛頓的複雜政治有關。”曼德曼後來在軍備控制和國際安全國務卿的陪同下擔任代理。
他說：“在華盛頓，總統還有許多其他優先事項。” “他沒有參議院確認其外交政策團隊。非常重要的是，他需要國會才能完成他在COVID救濟，經濟刺激，氣候變化，基礎設施方面的緊急計劃。而且，即使是在民主黨人之間，也存在著與伊朗接洽的正確方法的分歧。
“因此，他在採取這種做法時有些謹慎。他的確想听到各種各樣的聲音，包括國會中可能與他不同意的聲音，包括我們與伊朗為鄰的中東朋友的聲音。但是他也很清楚，仍然很清楚，目標是恢復完全合規性，然後繼續談判以解決其他問題的方式為基礎的協議。”
耶路撒冷郵報：美國最初的 立場 是：“如果伊朗遵守規定，我們將照此辦理。” 現在看來，可能還有其他選擇，例如恢復相互遵守，包括減輕制裁。您是否認為這是美方的讓步？
鄉下人：“我認為這是現實，因為在缺乏面對面談判的情況下，美國和伊朗都在發表聲明，說對方需要先行。在這種僵局中，必須有人提出一種更俱生產力的方法。
“這就是該協議的其他當事方，與美國不同的是，他們仍在遵守他們簽署的文件。這就是他們一直在努力的方式，如何制定，以便雙方都不必說：'我們先眨眼。我們說過我們不會先走，然後再走。”
“這是一個奇怪的情況，因為魯哈尼總統和我都說我們希望雙方都完全遵守。目標已經達成共識，但是決定誰先參加卻是一個問題。正如我所說的那樣，由於兩國國內政治非常緊張，這個問題在兩個首都都變得十分複雜。”
即將舉行的伊朗大選如何影響時間表？
“我仍然[雙方都可以找到重返協議的方式感到樂觀]，但[尚]不確定。以我作為外交官的經驗，與您以前與之談判的人進行談判比較容易。
“如果這種情況一直拖到伊朗新的大選，並且有新總統出台，雙方仍將需要某種形式的協議。但是，與一個新團隊合作將比現在更困難。我沒有關於沮喪的內幕消息，但我認為拜登團隊理解這一點。”
What to expect from the US and Iran indirect negotiations in Vienna
Iran and the US are holding indirect talks in Vienna as part of broader negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and global powers.
By OMRI NAHMIAS
APRIL 5, 2021 22:02
WASHINGTON – US and Iranian delegations will arrive in Vienna on Tuesday for an indirect round of negotiations about a possible return to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
“There can be reasons why two countries are unable to engage directly,” said Thomas Countryman, who served as assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation from 2011 to 2017. However, “in this case, the problem is not from the US side, but from the Iranian side, and it has to do with their own complex political situation. The countries in between – Britain, France, Germany, [and also] Russia and China, are trying to define what both Iran and the United States would have to do to return the JCPOA in full compliance.”
Indirect negotiations with a mediator are not an uncommon tool of diplomacy, he told The Jerusalem Post. The next step would be working out a schedule of either simultaneous or staged steps that each side will take within a certain period, he said.
“That’s the task,” Countryman said. But “obviously, it would be easier if the US and Iran were talking directly to each other about how we achieved the 2015 JCPOA.”
The door to diplomacy with Tehran is open, and yet it took both sides nearly three months to arrange a first, indirect meeting, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in his confirmation hearing.
“It has to do with complex politics in both Tehran and Washington,” said Countryman, who later served as acting under secretary of state for arms control and international security.
“In Washington, the president has many other priorities,” he said. “He doesn’t have his foreign-policy team confirmed by the Senate. Very importantly, he needs Congress in order to accomplish the urgent programs he has on COVID relief, economic stimulus, climate change, infrastructure. And there is some disagreement, even among the Democrats, about the right way to approach Iran.
“So he has been somewhat cautious in approaching this. He does want to hear a variety of voices, including from those in the Congress who may disagree with him, including from our friends in the Middle East who are Iran’s neighbors. But he’s also been clear and remains clear that the goal is to return to full compliance and afterwards to work on negotiating an agreement that builds on the way that addresses other issues.”
The Jerusalem Post: The original US position was, “If Iran comes to compliance, we will do the same.” It now seems like other options might be on the table, such as a return to mutual compliance, including sanction relief. Do you see it as a concession from the US side?
Countryman: “I see it as realism because both the US and Iran, in the absence of face-to-face negotiations, were making statements that said the other side needs to go first. In that kind of standoff, somebody has to come up with a more productive approach.
“That’s what the other parties to the agreement – who, unlike the US, are still in compliance with the document they signed – that’s what they’ve been working on, how to work it out so that neither side has to say, ‘We blinked first. We said we would not move first, and then we did.’
“It is a strange situation because both President Rouhani and I say we want full compliance by both sides. The goal is agreed [to] already, but deciding who will go first has been an issue. And as I say, the issue has been complicated in both capitals by very intense domestic politics.”
How does the upcoming election in Iran affect the timeline?
“I remain optimistic [that both sides could find a formula to return to the agreement,] but [it is] far from certain. In my experience as a diplomat, it is easier to negotiate with the people that you have negotiated with before.
“If this drags out until a new election in Iran, and there is a new president, both sides will still need some form of agreement. But working with a new team would be more difficult than what is possible right now. I have no inside information about the frustration, but I think that the Biden team understands that.”
普京簽署法律，允許他在克里姆林宮再競選兩個任期
評論家認為這是一場憲法政變，但這項改革還包含了一系列有望獲得民眾支持的其他修正案，例如一項旨在加強養老金保護的修正案。
由路透社
2021年4月5日20:16
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京（Vladimir Putin）在世界大屠殺論壇上發表講話，這標誌著納粹滅絕營奧斯威辛集中營解放75週年以來，在耶路撒冷Yad Vashem大屠殺紀念館舉行2020年1月23日
（照片來源：REUTERS / Ronen Zvulun）
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俄羅斯政府週一表示，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京（Vladimir Putin）已簽署一項法律，該法律可以使他在克里姆林宮任職至2036年。
這項立法允許他在當前任期到2024年結束時，可以再任兩個六年的任期。在此之前，去年對憲法進行了修改。
這些變化得到了去年夏天的一次公眾投票的支持，可能使現年68歲的普京有可能繼續執政，直到83歲。他目前正在連續第二任總統任期，目前已連續第四任總統。
評論家認為這是一場憲法政變，但這項改革還包含了一系列有望獲得民眾支持的其他修正案，例如一項旨在加強養老金保護的修正案。
普京簽署的法律將任何未來的總統任期限制為兩個任期，但重新設定了任期。它可以防止持有外國公民身份的任何人競選克里姆林宮。
該立法於上個月在議會上下院獲得通過。
Putin signs law allowing him to run for two more terms in Kremlin
The reform, which critics cast as a constitutional coup, was packaged with an array of other amendments that were expected to garner popular support, such as one bolstering pension protections.
By REUTERS APRIL 5, 2021 20:16Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the World Holocaust Forum marking 75 years since the liberation of the Nazi extermination camp Auschwitz, at Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial centre in Jerusalem January 23, 2020 (photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the World Holocaust Forum marking 75 years since the liberation of the Nazi extermination camp Auschwitz, at Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial centre in Jerusalem January 23, 2020
(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law that could keep him in office in the Kremlin until 2036, the government said on Monday.
The legislation allows him to run for two more six-year terms once his current stint ends in 2024. It follows changes to the constitution last year.
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Those changes were backed in a public vote last summer and could allow Putin, 68, to potentially remain in power until the age of 83. He is currently serving his second consecutive term as president and his fourth in total.
The reform, which critics cast as a constitutional coup, was packaged with an array of other amendments that were expected to garner popular support, such as one bolstering pension protections.
The law signed by Putin limits any future president to two terms in office, but resets his term count. It prevents anyone who has held foreign citizenship from running for the Kremlin.
The legislation was passed in the lower and upper houses of parliament last month.
家庭糾紛或外國支持的陰謀？
“沒有人預計這場爭論會升級到這樣一個程度，國王會命令軍隊和穆巴拉巴拉特突襲漢姆扎王子的宮殿並將其軟禁。”
由KHALED ABU TOAMEH 2021年4月6日07:42電子郵件 推特 Facebook fb信使
一名抗議者於2020年6月27日在約旦安曼舉行的反對以色列吞併西岸部分的靜坐中，參加約旦國王阿卜杜拉國王的海報，當時他參加人鏈。（圖片來源：REUTERS /穆罕默德·哈默德（）
一名抗議者在2020年6月27日於約旦安曼舉行的反對以色列吞併約旦河西岸部分地區的靜坐中，參加約旦國王阿卜杜拉國王的海報，當時他參加人鏈。
（照片來源：路透社/穆罕默德·哈默德）
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約旦的前王儲哈姆扎·本·侯賽因是因為與同父異母的兄弟阿卜杜拉國王發生個人糾紛而被軟禁了，還是被以軟禁的罪名軟禁了？或者，他的確確實打算在外國政黨的支持下發動政變？
有報導稱約旦安全部隊挫敗了哈姆扎和他的一些同夥推翻阿卜杜拉國王政權的企圖，許多約旦人仍在努力尋找答案。
幾名約旦人對他們的政府感到失望，因為他們沒有分享有關安全鎮壓的足夠信息。安曼新聞記者艾哈邁德·蘇萊曼（Ahmed Suleiman）抱怨說：“我們必須依靠外國媒體來了解約旦的事件。”
約旦的官方媒體沒有停止將沙特王國的巨大事態發展稱為未遂政變。相反，媒體和政府官員繼續談論挫敗“破壞約旦安全”的陰謀。
約旦前政府官員告訴《耶路撒冷郵報》，這場危機不會對該王國與以色列的關係產生任何影響。
這位官員說：“這是約旦內部事務，與以色列無關。” 他證實，約旦高級安全官員在周末與以色列同行進行了聯繫，向他們保證，約旦的局勢“穩定且受到控制”。
這位官員否認了謠言，對哈姆扎和他的朋友的鎮壓是以色列和美國小費的結果。
約旦外交部長艾曼·薩法迪週日表示，哈姆扎周圍的人們與自稱為“外部反對派”的實體進行了溝通。他沒有提供有關“外部反對派”的細節。
薩法迪說，與該案有關的十六名約旦人被拘留，其中包括前皇家法院院長巴瑟姆·阿瓦達拉和王室成員謝里夫·本·扎伊德。他指責被拘留者計劃“破壞約旦的安全”。
薩法迪（Safadi）指責哈姆扎（Hamzah）在周六晚上發送視頻消息，作為“歪曲事實並獲得本地和國外同情”的嘗試的一部分。
他補充說，一個與“外國情報機構”有聯繫的人聯繫了哈姆扎的妻子，並提出送飛機幫助她和她的家人離開該國。
同時，約旦官員對國王從許多國家獲得的支持表示滿意。
阿卜杜拉星期天接到摩洛哥和巴林國王以及卡塔爾和科威特酋長國的電話，他們表達了他們國家對約旦的“完全聲援”。
約旦通訊社佩特拉報導，領導人還表示支持阿卜杜拉為維護約旦的安全與穩定所採取的所有措施和決定。
沙特阿拉伯，埃及，阿拉伯聯合酋長國和海灣合作委員會也表示全力支持阿卜杜拉維持約旦的安全與穩定。
過去幾年，阿卜杜拉國王與哈姆扎之間的爭執一直是安曼許多圈子的公開秘密。
約旦政治分析家說：“這是英國女王/王后的兒子與美國女王/王后的兒子之間的人身爭議。” “這只是國王與其同父異母兄弟之間的正常糾紛。但是沒人能想到這場爭論會升級到這樣一個程度，國王會命令軍隊和穆哈巴拉特[Muskhabarat]（通用情報局）突襲Hamzah王子的宮殿並將其軟禁。”
阿卜杜拉國王的母親是已故國王侯賽因的第二任妻子穆納·侯賽因公主。她出生時是英國人，出生於薩福克郡切爾蒙迪斯頓的托妮·艾薇兒·加德納（Toni Avril Gardner）。她於1961年與侯賽因國王結婚。這對夫婦在10年後離婚。
Hamzah的母親是美國出生的Noor女王。她是麗莎·納吉布·哈拉比（Lisa Najeeb Halaby）出生於一個敘利亞裔美國人家庭，是侯賽因國王的第四任妻子。
侯賽因國王於1999年去世後，阿卜杜拉（Abdullah）成為國王，哈姆扎（Hamzah）成為王儲。
2004年，哈姆扎（Hamzah）被剝奪了作為繼承人的地位。五年後，阿卜杜拉任命長子侯賽因為王儲。
阿卜杜拉（Abdullah）在給哈姆扎（Hamzah）的信中告知他決定將他免職，他說：“您擔任這一象徵性職位限制了您的自由，並阻礙了我們將您完全有資格承擔的某些責任委託給您。”
儘管有親切的信件，但將哈姆扎解除為王儲的地位標誌著與阿卜杜拉之間發生了激烈的爭執。
從那時起，哈姆扎和努爾皇后一直批評阿卜杜拉，並指控他背叛了父親的願望，即哈姆紮成為約旦的未來國王。
侯賽因國王曾經將Hamzah稱為“我的喜悅”。
在阿卜杜拉（Abdullah）的指示下，約旦安全當局在過去幾年中一直密切關注Hamzah。哈姆扎與部落首領，政客和商人的會面在皇宮中引起了人們的懷疑，即疏遠的王子根本沒有善意。
根據阿拉伯社交媒體上的陰謀論，哈姆扎（Hamzah）的一些密友與阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman）有直接聯繫。
但是，哈姆扎的支持者堅決否認了他打算推翻該政權的指控。
他們中的許多人都在社交媒體上表達了對哈姆扎的支持，認為哈姆扎是國王和他的兒子侯賽因王儲發起的一次塗抹運動的受害者，目的是使批評家保持沉默並掩蓋該國猖corruption的腐敗行為。一些人形容哈姆扎為“心中之王”，並呼籲國王停止騷擾他。
努爾女王（Queen Noor）在推特帳戶上就其兒子被軟禁的消息發表的第一條評論中寫道：“為這個邪惡的誹謗的所有無辜受害者祈禱，真理和正義將佔上風。願上帝保佑並確保他們的安全。”
Jordan: A family dispute or a foreign-backed plot?
"No one expected the controversy to escalate to a point where the king would order the army and the mukhabarat to raid Prince Hamzah’s palace and place him under house arrest."
By KHALED ABU TOAMEH APRIL 6, 2021 07:42Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger
A protester holds a poster of Jordan's King Abdullah as he takes part in a human chain during a sit-in against the annexation of parts of the West Bank by Israel, in Amman, Jordan, June 27, 2020. (photo credit: REUTERS/MUHAMMAD HAMED)
A protester holds a poster of Jordan's King Abdullah as he takes part in a human chain during a sit-in against the annexation of parts of the West Bank by Israel, in Amman, Jordan, June 27, 2020.
(photo credit: REUTERS/MUHAMMAD HAMED)
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Was Jordan’s former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Hussein placed under house arrest on trumped-up charges because of a personal dispute with his half-brother King Abdullah, or was he indeed plotting to stage a coup with the backing of foreign parties?
Many Jordanians were still grappling for answers on Sunday in the aftermath of reports that Jordanian security forces foiled an attempt by Hamzah and some of his associates to topple the regime of King Abdullah.
Several Jordanians expressed disappointment with their government for not sharing enough information about the security crackdown. “We have to rely on the foreign media to learn about events in Jordan,” complained Amman-based journalist Ahmed Suleiman.
The official media in Jordan has stopped short of calling the dramatic developments in the kingdom an attempted coup. Instead, the media and government officials continued to talk about the thwarting of a plot to “undermine Jordan’s security.”
The crisis will not have any impact on the kingdom’s relations with Israel, a former Jordanian government official told The Jerusalem Post.
“This is an internal Jordanian affair that has nothing to do with Israel,” the official said. He confirmed that senior Jordanian security officials contacted their Israeli counterparts over the weekend to assure them that the situation in Jordan was “stable and under control.”
The official denied rumors that the crackdown on Hamzah and his friends was the result of a tip-off by Israel and the US.
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People around Hamzah communicated with entities calling themselves “external opposition,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said Sunday. He did not provide details about the “external opposition.”
Sixteen Jordanians have been detained in connection with the case, including Bassem Awadallah, a former head of the royal court, and Sharif bin Zaid, a member of the royal family, Safadi said. He accused the detainees of planning to “undermine the security” of Jordan.
Safadi accused Hamzah of sending out a video message on Saturday night as part of an attempt to “distort the facts and gain local and foreign sympathy.”
A person with links to “foreign intelligence agencies” contacted Hamzah’s wife and offered to send a plane to help her and her family leave the country, he added, without elaborating.
Jordanian officials, meanwhile, expressed satisfaction with the support the king has received from many countries.
Abdullah received phone calls on Sunday from the kings of Morocco and Bahrain and the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait, who expressed their countries’ “full solidarity” with Jordan.
The leaders also voiced support for all measures and decisions taken by Abdullah to safeguard Jordan’s security and stability, the Jordanian news agency Petra reported.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council also voiced full support for Abdullah in maintaining security and stability in Jordan.
The dispute between King Abdullah and Hamzah has been an open secret in many circles in Amman over the past few years.
“This is a personal dispute between the son of an English queen and the son of an American queen,” said a Jordanian political analyst. “It’s just a normal dispute between the king and his half-brother. But no one expected the controversy to escalate to a point where the king would order the army and the Mukhabarat [General Intelligence Directorate] to raid Prince Hamzah’s palace and place him under house arrest.”
King Abdullah’s mother is Princess Muna al-Hussein, the second wife of the late King Hussein. She is British by birth, born Toni Avril Gardner in Chelmondiston, Suffolk. She married King Hussein in 1961. The couple divorced 10 years later.
Hamzah’s mother is American-born Queen Noor. Born Lisa Najeeb Halaby to a Syrian-American family, she was the fourth wife of King Hussein.
After the death of King Hussein in 1999, Abdullah became king, and Hamzah became crown prince.
In 2004, Hamzah was stripped of his status as heir designate. Five years later, Abdullah named his eldest son, Hussein, as crown prince.
In a letter to Hamzah informing him of the decision to remove him from his post, Abdullah wrote: “Your holding this symbolic position has restrained your freedom and hindered our entrusting you with certain responsibilities that you are fully qualified to undertake.”
Despite the affectionate letter, the removal of Hamzah from his status as crown prince marked the beginning of a bitter dispute with Abdullah.
Since then, Hamzah and Queen Noor have criticized Abdullah and accused him of betraying his father’s wish that Hamzah become the future king of Jordan.
King Hussein used to refer to Hamzah as “the delight of my eye.”
On the instructions of Abdullah, the Jordanian security authorities have kept a close watch on Hamzah over the past few years. Hamzah’s meetings with tribal leaders, politicians and businessmen aroused suspicions in the royal palace that the estranged prince was up to no good.
According to conspiracy theories on Arab social media, some of Hamzah’s close friends were directly linked to the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Hamzah’s supporters, however, have vehemently denied the allegation that he was plotting to overthrow the regime.
Many of them took to social media to voice their support for Hamzah, arguing that he was the victim of a smear campaign waged by the king and his son, Crown Prince Hussein, to silence critics and cover up for rampant corruption in the kingdom. Some described Hamzah as the “prince of hearts” and called on the king to stop harassing him.
On her Twitter account, Queen Noor wrote in the first comment on the news of her son’s house arrest: “Praying that truth and justice will prevail for all the innocent victims of this wicked slander. God bless and keep them safe.”