本集介紹

2021.04.28 國際新聞導讀-伊朗外長錄音帶公開與軍方立場分歧、伊朗船隻向美軍船隻做出威脅動作、美國打算送出6000萬劑Astrazeneca疫苗

伊朗的秘密錄像帶：伊朗的Zarif真的被IRGC擋在一邊了嗎？
洩漏的磁帶似乎顯示Zarif聲稱俄羅斯想破壞2015年簽署的伊朗核協議。
由SETH J.FRANTZMAN
2021年4月26日16:24

文件圖片：2019年12月30日在俄羅斯莫斯科與俄羅斯外交大臣謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫（Sergei Lavrov）會晤時，伊朗外交大臣穆罕默德·賈瓦德·扎里夫（Mohammad Javad Zarif）出席了會議。
（照片來源：REUTERS / EVGENIA NOVOZHENINA）
廣告

洩漏的唱片是一個奇怪傳奇的最新轉折，似乎使伊朗外交部長穆罕默德·賈瓦德·扎里夫（Mohammad Javad Zarif）與伊斯蘭革命衛隊（Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps）抗衡。
據說，IRGC Quds部隊司令Qasem Soleimani正在破壞他，伊朗在與俄羅斯合作時與伊朗達成了交易。
這些錄像帶似乎顯示Zarif聲稱俄羅斯想破壞2015年簽署的伊朗核協議。Soleimani試圖“破壞我們的成就，”他說。
扎里夫說，伊朗允許俄羅斯利用伊朗領空轟炸敘利亞，並通過伊朗運送軍事裝備。據推測，這一切與部署到敘利亞的伊朗部隊一起都是在伊朗政府不知情的情況下進行的。
洩漏的磁帶會導致以下結論之一。他們似乎迎合了西方的世界觀，描繪了扎里夫（Zarif）和哈桑·魯哈尼（Hassan Rouhani）總統為“溫和派”，正與IRGC和最高領導人辦公室的“強硬派”相對。當美國考慮重新進入伊朗協議時，洩漏的時機似乎鼓勵了這種觀點。
洩密事件還描述了一個不能信任的伊朗政府，因為扎里夫是該政權的笑臉，但實際上並不代表其政權。這可能有助於西方國家與Zarif簽署協議，然後伊朗可以假裝它違反了這些協議，因為只有外交部簽署了這些協議。
這有助於伊朗採取“好警察，壞警察”的方式，該政權假裝其影子政府實施的政策與該政權不同。
這有點像伊朗在黎巴嫩做的誘餌和轉換，伊朗使用真主黨的“武裝聯隊”制定一項政策，而黎巴嫩政府則從西方獲得資金。
德黑蘭的最新說法是，它現在擁有自己的內部“真主黨”，即IRGC，伊朗的“武裝派別”在做一件事，而“政治派別”在做別的事嗎？這似乎是為了讓伊朗進行非法行為並具有合理的可否認性而設計的。
另一個選擇是Zarif躺在磁帶上。他經常向西方觀眾撒謊，所以撒謊是不知道索萊瑪尼在做什麼。
第三種選擇是，故意洩漏磁帶，以表明他侮辱了扎里夫（Sariimani）這樣的烈士。美國於2020年1月殺死了索萊馬尼（Soleimani）。
但是，由於俄羅斯支持聯合全面行動計劃或伊朗協議，因此錄音帶上的要求與現實不符。莫斯科為什麼要破壞這筆交易？
關於俄羅斯是損害JCPOA的敵機的論點似乎使這筆交易看起來像是美國的成功，華盛頓需要重新進入以對抗莫斯科。這種荒謬的邏輯使俄羅斯反對JCPOA，而該交易顯然對伊朗和俄羅斯有所幫助。
讓我們看一下Zarif洩漏的出現情況。他們告訴我們的是Zarif沒有真正的力量，因此無法依靠。這意味著美國和其他國家應直接與IRGC進行談判，並繞過外交部。
如果IRGC否決了政府的決定並執行自己的政策，則應處理該問題，而不是在外交部裁定該聯絡員的合理理由。如果Zarif的“手被束縛”，那麼他應該被忽略。
總部位於倫敦的英國波斯電視台伊朗國際組織（Iran International）研究了Zarif的說法。
報告說：“扎里夫說，索里馬尼參加了與俄羅斯外長謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫的會晤，並補充說索里馬尼永遠不會接受扎里夫的要求。” “'他不會接受禁止使用伊朗國家航空公司運輸到敘利亞的飛機。'”
Zarif似乎聲稱他在伊朗外交政策中的作用基本上是“零”。
但是，扎里夫（Zarif）故意試圖證明他與索萊馬尼（Soleimani）接近。他還試圖證明自己與IRGC的距離。2017年10月，他發了一條推文：“今天，伊朗人-男孩，女孩，男人，女人-全部都是IRGC；與捍衛我們和該地區免受侵略和恐怖襲擊的人站在一起。”
扎里夫在撒謊嗎？他是騙子嗎？他是操縱者嗎？還是他只是天真？
現在沒有很好的選擇來解譯Zarif。他要么沒有權力，要么故意洩漏了這條錄音帶，以提高離職後在某西方大學擔任教授職位的機會。否則，他的政權簡直是完全無能為力，而且他也不能不信任他闡明其政策。
沒有閱讀過這段磁帶，扎里夫應該再一次被視為伊朗外交政策的參與者。但是他可能會因為過去這些絕技來去去了。他曾經假裝辭職。
扎里夫（Zarif）禁令是在伊朗新聞電視台與外交部副部長阿巴斯·阿拉基（Abbas Araghchi）進行類似的戰鬥之後發生的。上週，阿拉吉（Araghchi）抨擊媒體電視台（Press TV）尋求有關伊朗交易的故事，嘲笑它沒有被告知。
他在推特上寫道：“我不知道維也納新聞電視的“知情人士”是誰，但他/他當然不是“知情者”。
與阿拉貢（Araghchi）的尷尬事件削弱了外交部的形象。
Zarif更大的尷尬應該摧毀整個政府部門，以及任何人假裝他們可以與政府部門對話並獲得直接答复。當然，這將破壞伊斯蘭共和國在維也納的談判。
但這也可能導致西方大國通過屈從Zarif的要求來“加強溫和派”。
在這種情況下，可能值得問一問，這是否僅僅是旨在使美國重返談判桌的舉動。伊朗政府已經試圖利用即將舉行的選舉來鼓勵美國加快步伐，警告“強硬派”可能會獲勝。
伊朗是一個老練的國家和政權。與土耳其是自上而下的專制和法西斯主義國家不同，伊朗政權願意使用更狡猾和更複雜的方法。但是總的來說，這種政權並沒有在強硬派和溫和派之間劃分。這只是強硬派。
問題可能在於是否有強硬派或其他強硬派。扎里夫（Zarif）在他的自然棲息地西方智囊團中歌唱著伊朗政權中存在神話般的美好部分。現在，在表面上秘密的錄音中也聽說過它。
Iran’s secret tapes: Is Iran’s Zarif really sidelined by the IRGC?
Leaked tapes appear to show Zarif claiming that Russia wanted to sabotage the Iran nuclear deal signed in 2015.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
APRIL 26, 2021 16:24

FILE PHOTO: Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif looks on during a meeting with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow, Russia December 30, 2019.
(photo credit: REUTERS/EVGENIA NOVOZHENINA)
Advertisement
Leaked recordings are the latest twist in a strange saga that appears to pit Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was undermining him and the Iran deal while working with Russia, he supposedly said on the tapes.
sabotage the Iran nuclear deal signed in 2015. Soleimani sought to “demolish our achievement,” he said.
Iran allowed Russia to use Iranian airspace to bomb Syria and move military equipment via Iran, Zarif said. This, together with Iranian forces being deployed to Syria, supposedly all went on without the knowledge of the Iranian government.
The leaked tapes lead to one of several conclusions. They seem to cater to a Western worldview that depicts Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani as “moderates” who are confronting the “hard-liners” in the IRGC and the Supreme Leader’s Office. The leaks appear timed to encourage this view as the US considers reentering the Iran deal.
The leaks also depict an Iranian government that cannot be trusted because Zarif is the smiling face of the regime but doesn’t actually represent its policies. This could aid Western countries as they sign deals with Zarif, and then Iran can pretend it violates the deals because only the Foreign Ministry signed them.
This aids Iran’s “good cop, bad cop” approach, where the regime pretends it has a shadow government that conducts different policies than the regime agrees to.
This is sort of like the bait and switch Iran does in Lebanon, where it uses Hezbollah’s “armed wing” to do one policy, while the Lebanese government gets funding from the West.
Is Tehran’s latest narrative that it now has its own internal “Hezbollah,” known as the IRGC, and that Iran’s “armed wing” does one thing, while the “political wing” does something else? This appears crafted to let Iran carry out illegal behavior and have plausible deniability.
Another option is that Zarif is lying on the tapes. He often lies to Western audiences, so lying about not knowing what Soleimani was doing could be part of the program.
A third option is that the tapes were leaked purposely to undermine Zarif by showing he insulted a powerful martyr-like Soleimani. The US killed Soleimani in January 2020.
THE CLAIMS on the tapes don’t mesh with reality, however, since Russia has backed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran deal. Why would Moscow want to sabotage the deal?
The argument that Russia is a bogeyman harming the JCPOA would seem to make it look like the deal was a US success and that Washington needs to reenter it to confront Moscow. This ridiculous logic presents Russia as against the JCPOA, while the deal manifestly helps Iran and Russia.
Let’s take the Zarif leaks as they appear. What they tell us is that Zarif has no real power and cannot be relied upon. It means the US and other countries should negotiate directly with the IRGC and bypass the Foreign Ministry.
If the IRGC overrules government decisions and conducts its own policy, then it should be dealt with rather than the plausible deniability of the cutout at the Foreign Ministry. If Zarif’s “hands are tied,” then he should be ignored.
Iran International, a British-based Persian television station headquartered in London, examined Zarif claims.
“Zarif said that Soleimani intervened in his meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, adding that Soleimani would never accept a demand by Zarif,” the report said. “‘He would not accept to refrain from using the Iranian national airline for transportation to Syria.’”
Zarif seemed to claim his role in Iranian foreign policy was basically “nil.”
However, Zarif has purposely tried to show he was close to Soleimani. He has also sought to demonstrate how close he is to the IRGC. In October 2017, he tweeted: “Today, Iranians – boys, girls, men, women – are ALL IRGC; standing firm with those who defend us and the region against aggression and terror.”
So is Zarif lying? Is he a charlatan? Is he a manipulator? Or is he just naïve?
THERE ARE now no good options for interpreting Zarif. Either he has no power, or he purposely leaked this tape to improve his chances for a chair as a professor at some Western university when he leaves office. Otherwise, his regime is simply totally incompetent, and he cannot be trusted to articulate its policy.
There is no reading of this tape in which Zarif should ever be seen as a player in Iran’s foreign policy again. Yet he likely will be because these stunts have come and gone in the past. He once even pretended to resign.
The Zarif imbroglio comes after a similar battle between Iran’s Press TV and Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Last week, Araghchi slammed Press TV over its sourcing for a story on the Iran deal, mocking it as not being informed.
“I don’t know who the ‘informed source’ of Press TV in Vienna is, but s/he is certainly not ‘informed,’” he tweeted.
The embarrassing incident with Araghchi weakened the Foreign Ministry’s image.
Zarif’s even greater embarrassment should demolish the whole ministry, as well as anyone’s pretense that they can talk to the ministry and get a straight answer. Of course, this should undermine the Islamic Republic’s negotiations in Vienna.
But it also might lead to Western powers running to “strengthen the moderates” by caving in to Zarif’s demands.
In such a scenario, it might be worth asking if this was all just an act designed to bring the US back to the table. Iran’s administration has already tried to use its upcoming elections as a way to encourage America to move faster, warning that “hard-liners” might win.
Iran is a sophisticated country and regime. Unlike Turkey, a top-down authoritarian and fascist one, Iran’s regime is willing to use more cunning and complex approaches. But overall, the regime is not divided between hard-liners and moderates; it is only hardliners.
The question may be whether there are hard-hardliners or other hard-liners. The pretense that there is some mythical good part of the Iranian regime is only sung by Zarif at Western think tanks, his natural habitat. And now it has also been heard about in ostensibly secret recordings.
IRGC船隻騷擾了波斯灣的美國海岸警衛隊-報告
宣布就恢復2015年JCPOA核協議的談判宣布後的第二天，三艘船在波斯灣湧向一艘美國船隻。
通過耶路撒冷郵報STAFF
2021年4月27日23:39

伊朗革命衛隊（IRGC）的一艘船在2019年8月22日在伊朗阿巴斯港海岸附近一個未公開的地方航行。
（照片來源：NAZANIN TABATABAEE / WANA VIA REUTERS）
廣告
海軍官員周一對《華爾街日報》說，四月初，三艘伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGCN）的船隻在波斯灣騷擾了兩艘美國海岸警衛隊的船隻。
事件發生在4月2日，就在美國，伊朗和歐洲國家宣布將進行談判以恢復2015年JCPOA核協議的第二天。歐美國家目前正在維也納與伊朗進行會談。
海軍官員說，大約有三艘快攻船和一艘名為“ Harth 55”的船在波斯灣南部擁擠了兩艘海岸警衛隊的船，距離兩艘船的船首相距70碼。美國的兩艘船隻中的一艘是蘭吉爾（Wrangell），被迫進行防禦性機動以防止相撞。
事件發生了三個小時，美國機組人員向伊朗船隻發出了多個警告。而Cmdr。海軍第五艦隊的發言人麗貝卡·瑞巴里希（Rebecca Rebarich）告訴《華爾街日報》，伊朗海軍 55號機組人員對美軍艦船之間的橋樑無線電查詢做出了回應，目前尚不清楚他們在通訊中說了什麼。
美國軍方周二說，在IRGCN艦艇靠近它們之後，美國海岸警衛隊艦隊發出了警告射擊。
軍事聲明說：“美國船員通過橋到橋無線電和大聲鳴叫設備發出了多次警告，但IRGCN船繼續進行近距離機動。”
聲明補充說：“隨後，Firebolt的船員發出了警告聲，IRGCN船與美國船相距安全距離。”
海軍將這一事件稱為“不安全和不專業”。這是自2020年4月以來的第一起此類事件，也是使用Harth 55號大型船隻記錄的第一起此類事件。
伊朗外交部長穆罕默德·賈瓦德·扎里夫（Mohammad Javad Zarif）週一在伊朗國際和《紐約時報》洩漏的採訪中說，伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊曾干涉外交問題，並曾試圖破壞JCPOA交易。Zarif特別指出，前IRGC古德軍司令官Qasem Soleimani於2015年對莫斯科進行了訪問，他說，這樣做的目的是“摧毀JCPOA”。
該報告是在伊朗和以色列在整個地區報導了一系列所謂的海事事件之後發生的，據報導伊朗和以色列船隻遭到襲擊。
IRGC boats harassed US Coast Guard in Persian Gulf - report
Three boats swarmed a US vessel in the Persian Gulf just a day after an announcement about talks to return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
APRIL 27, 2021 23:39

A boat of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) sails, at undisclosed place off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran August 22, 2019.
(photo credit: NAZANIN TABATABAEE/WANA VIA REUTERS)
Advertisement
A group of three Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGCN) vessels harassed two US Coast Guard ships in the Persian Gulf at the beginning of April, Navy officials told The Wall Street Journal on Monday.
The incident took place on April 2, just a day after the US, Iran and European nations announced that they would conduct talks to return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. The US and European nations are currently conducting talks with Iran in Vienna.
Some three fast-attack boats and one ship called the Harth 55 swarmed two Coast Guard ships in the southern Persian Gulf, coming as close as 70 yards to the bows of the two vessels, Navy officials stated. One of the two US vessels, the Wrangell, was forced to make defensive maneuvers to prevent a collision.
The incident took place over a three-hour period, with the American crews issuing multiple warnings to the Iranian ships. While Cmdr. Rebecca Rebarich, a spokeswoman for the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, told the Journal that the crew of the Iranian Harth 55 responded to bridge-to-bridge radio queries from the American vessels, it is unclear what they stated in the communication.
The US Coast Guard Ships fired warning shots after the IRGCN vessels came close to them, the United States military said on Tuesday.
"The U.S. crews issued multiple warnings via bridge-to-bridge radio and loud-hailer devices, but the IRGCN vessels continued their close range maneuvers," the military statement said.
"The crew of Firebolt then fired warning shots, and the IRGCN vessels moved away to a safe distance from the U.S. vessels," the statement added, using the name for the U.S. Navy patrol ship.
The Navy referred to the incident as "unsafe and unprofessional." This was the first such incident since April 2020 and the first one recorded using a vessel as large as the Harth 55.
In an interview leaked by Iran International and The New York Times on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the IRGC had interfered with diplomatic issues and had attempted to torpedo the JCPOA deal in the past. Zarif specifically pointed to a visit by former IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani to Moscow in 2015, which he said had the objective to "destroy the JCPOA."
The report comes after a series of alleged maritime incidents were reported between Iran and Israel throughout the region, with attacks on both Iranian and Israeli vessels being reported.

Reuters contributed to this report.*


Zarif大嘴巴的最新受害者John Kerry-分析
扎里夫（Zarif）沒有意識到被廣泛報導的以色列在敘利亞的空襲，這真是荒謬，乞求一個問題，為什麼他聲稱自己不知道。
由SETH J.FRANTZMAN
2021年4月27日20:21

時任美國國務卿約翰·克里（John Kerry）於2016年在曼哈頓會見伊朗外交大臣穆罕默德·賈瓦德·扎里夫（Mohammad Javad Zarif）。
（照片來源：路透社）
廣告
伊朗外交大臣穆罕默德·賈瓦德·扎里夫（Mohammad Javad Zarif）洩露的錄像帶，抨擊伊朗的伊斯蘭革命衛隊和俄羅斯，現在已使美國氣候沙皇約翰·克里陷入困境。曾推動伊朗協議的前國務卿克里曾在過去被指責，即使他不在辦公室時仍在繼續與伊朗進行討論。他現在否認他向Zarif提供了有關以色列在敘利亞的“秘密”行動的信息。
克里與伊朗的故事實際上可以追溯到十多年前，即克里在2007年在達沃斯與伊朗前總統穆罕默德·哈塔米（Mohammad Khatami）會面時。他當時遭到抨擊，批評了布什政府，而且似乎是支持伊朗的。
快進洩漏的Zarif磁帶。扎里夫（Zarif）正在與一名記者交談，並討論了伊朗協議和其他細節。錄音是從三月開始的，但是紮里夫提到了他的其他會議。
伊朗國際報導說：“扎里夫補充說，魯哈尼不知道[IRGC古德斯部隊指揮官卡塞姆]索萊馬尼對外交的干預。” “他還說，外交部對伊朗在敘利亞的軍事行動一無所知。他說：“是前美國外交大臣約翰·克里（John Kerry）告訴我，以色列對敘利亞的伊朗部隊發動的襲擊不僅僅是 襲擊。”
關於以色列在敘利亞的空襲的細節並不像某些報導所證實的那樣敏感。以色列進行空襲，甚至針對伊朗部隊，這不是秘密。
例如，自2017年8月以來，前國際空軍的指揮官埃米爾（Emir Eshel）說，以色列在敘利亞發動了約100次襲擊。據《耶路撒冷郵報》和伊奈特報導，據以色列國防軍的高級消息來源稱，截至2018年9月，以色列在敘利亞進行了一年半的200次空襲。
據報導，到2019年1月，以色列軍方已經襲擊了伊朗和真主黨的目標“數百次”。在接受以色列國防軍前參謀長加迪·埃岑科特（Gadi Eizenkot）的採訪時，同樣的細節還包括聲稱以色列襲擊了敘利亞的“數千”伊朗目標。
那麼，克里向Zarif揭示了哪些尚未廣為人知的東西？他在2017年之前告訴Zarif這些細節了嗎？
在美國，洩漏的細節導致了一場政治爭端，共和黨人抨擊了克里。克里回答說：“我可以告訴你，這個故事和這些指控顯然是錯誤的。無論是從我當國務卿以來還是從那時以來，這從未發生過。”
Zarif在唱片上大張嘴顯然引起了Kerry的關注，因為他感到有必要否認這個故事。這就引出了一個更大的問題，即為什麼Zarif放棄了Kerry的名字。扎里夫（Zarif）在錄像帶上聲稱，他沒有被告知伊朗自己行動的基本細節，例如伊朗於2020年1月在美國基地發射彈道導彈。
Zarif在撒謊怎麼辦？這是有關錄音的關鍵問題。眾所周知，扎里夫（Zarif）經常誤導西方記者和其他人，甚至對其撒謊。他通常出於各種目的執行此操作。
他最新的敘述似乎是他被IRGC拒之門外。這使他成為受害者，也使他似乎在真誠地與國外進行談判而在國內受到損害。
這在伊朗政權的敘述中發揮了作用，該敘述認為“強硬派”破壞了“溫和派”。實際上，情況並非如此。Zarif是該政權的一部分。他沒有執行自己的政策。唱片發行時他在多哈。
那麼出現的問題並不是凱里告訴Zarif的真正含義，而是為什麼Zarif吹牛自己被凱里告知這些細節？Zarif裝作對基本事物的無知。他假裝自己甚至看不懂有關空襲的《紐約時報》。
約翰·克里（John Kerry）向Zarif通報了有關以色列空襲的信息，而他不知道對敘利亞的伊朗車隊的空襲的想法似乎是荒謬的。他不閱讀自己的伊朗媒體嗎？他自己的部門內沒有任何消息來源嗎？
英國廣播公司（BBC）在2015年報導，伊朗正在悄悄加深對敘利亞的介入。扎里夫（Zarif）說，他對伊朗的角色一無所知。他沒有註意英國廣播公司嗎？他是世界上最無知的外交部長嗎？還是他在玩某種遊戲，試圖假裝自己不知道該如何獲得某些好處？如果Zarif可以聲稱對伊朗在敘利亞的角色一無所知，他會得到什麼？
他可以說，他所談判的交易似乎受到伊朗其他因素的“違反”。他也許可以為事後的職業做準備。
Zarif的評論讓電影《卡薩布蘭卡》中的一個場景讓人回想起，當時雷諾上尉被“震驚”以至於在他本人賭博的咖啡館裡賭博。關於空襲的他。
伊朗外交大臣從美國前國務卿那裡了解以色列的空襲，而不是閱讀媒體報導，還是只想傳達有關與克里的關係，這是否更合理？
克里與伊朗政權關係密切，由來已久，可以追溯到2007年他在達沃斯與哈塔米（Khatami）的會面之前，甚至可能在此之前。他想從根本上調整美國在該地區的政策，以便與伊朗合作。他在這方面的目標很可能會贏得一些個人聲譽，因為他是從寒冷中帶回伊朗的個人。
美國在伊朗協議上進行了艱苦的努力，部分原因是這筆費用不菲，而且美國需要外交上的勝利。克里領先奪冠。如果沒有美國當時要求的伊朗協議，那麼與伊朗合作的努力將無濟於事。
當時美國的說法是，如果沒有達成協議，那將是“戰爭”。實際上，沒有戰爭，這是在特朗普政府放棄該交易時透露出來的。
伊朗也沒有受到鈾濃縮的阻礙。它公開違反協議而濃縮鈾，而其他簽署國則要求伊朗停止鈾濃縮。克里和扎里夫建立了一種可以互相幫助的關係，表面上是在兩國面對“強硬派”。這是一種共生關係。他們會一起上升和下降。
洩漏的磁帶使克里感到尷尬，導致他被拒絕。目前尚不清楚它將如何影響Zarif。他已經在國內不信任了，如果他將自己描繪成對伊朗自己政策的無知，現在尚不清楚他是否現在可以在國外被信任以實現伊朗的目標。
儘管如此，這可能對他有利，因為他可以繼續成為伊朗政權的基石。
John Kerry, the latest victim of Zarif’s big mouth - Analysis
It seems ridiculous that Zarif was unaware of the widely reported alleged Israeli airstrikes in Syria, begging the question why he's claiming he didn't know.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
APRIL 27, 2021 20:21

Then-US Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Manhattan in 2016.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
Advertisement

A leaked tape of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif critiquing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Russia has now ensnared US climate czar John Kerry. Kerry, the former secretary of state who pushed for the Iran deal, has been accused in the past of continuing discussions with Iran even while out of office. He has now denied he provided Zarif with information on Israeli “covert” operations in Syria.
The Kerry-Iran story actually goes back more than a decade to when Kerry met with former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami at Davos in 2007. He was slammed at the time for comments that were critical of the Bush administration and appeared to be pro-Iranian.
Fast-forward to the leaked Zarif tape. Zarif was speaking to a reporter and discussing the Iran deal and other details. The recording is from March, but Zarif refers to other meetings he had.
“Zarif added that Rouhani did not know about [IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem] Soleimani’s intervention in diplomacy,” Iran International, which broke the story, reported. “He also said that the Foreign Ministry was kept in the dark about Iran’s military operations in Syria. ‘It was former US Foreign Secretary John Kerry who told me Israel had launched more than attacks on Iranian forces in Syria,’ he said.”
The details about Israeli airstrikes in Syria are not as sensitive as some reports have made them out to be. It was not a secret that Israel had carried out airstrikes or even targeted Iranian forces.
For instance, since August 2017, former IAF commander Amir Eshel said Israel had carried out around 100 attacks in Syria. By September 2018 it was reported that Israel had carried out 200 airstrikes in Syria in a year and a half, according to a senior IDF source, The Jerusalem Post and Ynet reported.
By January 2019 the Israeli military had struck Iranian and Hezbollah targets “hundreds of times,” according to reports. The same details in an interview with former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot included claims that Israel had struck “thousands” of Iranian targets in Syria.
So what did Kerry reveal to Zarif that was not already widely known? Did he tell Zarif these details before 2017?
In the US, the details from the leak have led to a political dispute in which Republicans have slammed Kerry. Kerry responded, “I can tell you that this story and these allegations are unequivocally false. This never happened – either when I was secretary of state or since.”
Zarif’s big mouth on the recording has obviously caused Kerry concern, as he felt the need to deny the story. This leads to a larger question about why Zarif was dropping Kerry’s name. It comes amid Zarif’s claims on the tape that he was not informed about basic details of Iran’s own operations, such as Iran firing ballistic missiles at a US base in January 2020.
What if Zarif is lying? This is a key question about the recording. Zarif is known to often mislead or outright lie to Western journalists and others. He typically does this for various purposes.
His latest narrative appears to be that he was sidelined by the IRGC. This makes him out to be a victim and also makes it seem like he is negotiating in good faith abroad while being undermined at home.
This plays into the Iranian regime’s narrative that posits “hard-liners” undermine the “moderates.” In reality, this is not the case. Zarif is part of the regime. He isn’t conducting his own policy. He was in Doha when the recording was released.
The question that emerges then is not really what Kerry told Zarif, but why Zarif is bragging about being told these details by Kerry? Zarif is feigning ignorance on basic things. He is pretending he can’t even read The New York Times, which had written about the airstrikes.
The idea that Zarif was told information on Israeli airstrikes by John Kerry and that he didn’t know about airstrikes on Iranian convoys in Syria appears ridiculous. Does he not read his own Iranian media? Does he not have any sources inside his own ministry?
Iran was quietly deepening involvement in Syria, the BBC reported in 2015. Zarif says he didn’t know about Iran’s role. He didn’t pay attention to the BBC? Is he the most uninformed foreign minister in the world? Or is he up to some game, trying to pretend he didn’t know as a way to get some benefit? What might Zarif receive if he can claim he didn’t know about Iran’s role in Syria?
He can make it seem like deals he negotiates are being “violated” by other elements in Iran. He can perhaps prepare himself for a post-ministerial career.
Zarif’s comments remind one of the scene in the film Casablanca when Capt. Renault is “shocked” to find gambling taking place at a café that he himself gambles in. Zarif is shocked to find out that there are Iranians in Syria and claims that Kerry told him about airstrikes.
Is it more reasonable that the Iranian foreign minister learns of Israeli airstrikes from the former US secretary of state rather than read media reports, or that he simply wants to convey something about his relationship with Kerry?
Kerry has a long history of being close to the Iranian regime, dating back to his meeting with Khatami in Davos in 2007 and likely before. He wanted to radically reorient US policy in the region to work with Iran. His goal in this was likely to achieve some personal fame as the individual who brought Iran in from the cold.
The US worked hard on the Iran deal in part because it was such a sunk cost and the US needed a diplomatic win. Kerry fronted that win. Without the Iran deal, which the US begged for at the time, there would be little to show for the efforts to work with Iran.
The US narrative at the time was that there would be “war” if there was no deal. In reality, there was no war, which was revealed when the Trump administration walked away from the deal.
Iran also wasn’t blocked from uranium enrichment; it openly enriches uranium in violation of the deal, while the other signatories beg Iran to stop. Kerry and Zarif cultivated a relationship in which they would help one another, ostensibly confronting “hard-liners” back home in both their countries. It was a symbiotic relationship. They would rise and fall together.
The leaked tape has embarrassed Kerry, resulting in his denial. It’s not clear how it will impact Zarif. He was already distrusted at home, and it’s not clear if he can be trusted abroad now to further Iran’s aims if he paints himself as ignorant of Iran’s own policies.
Nevertheless, this may work in his favor because he can continue to be the cherubic face of Iran’s regime.
美國將在全球共享多達6000萬劑阿斯利康疫苗-白宮
白宮新聞秘書詹·普薩基（Jen Psaki）說，美國將在其他國家獲得這些劑量後再將其釋放。
由路透社
2021年4月27日00:48

在倫敦一家藥店的藥品包裝上可以看到阿斯利康的徽標
（照片來源：路透社）
廣告
白宮週一說，美國將在接下來的幾週內盡快與其他國家 分享多達6000萬劑的阿斯利康公司冠狀病毒疫苗。
白宮新聞秘書詹·普薩基（Jen Psaki）說，美國將在其他國家獲得這些劑量後再將其釋放。
她說，“未來幾週內”可能有1000萬劑藥物被清除出口。目前正在生產約5000萬劑，並可能在5月和6月發貨。
普薩基說：“目前，阿斯利康的劑量為零。”他指出，美國監管機構仍然需要審查已經生產的阿斯利康的質量。
普薩基說，拜登政府仍在決定將在何處以及如何共享疫苗的過程。
她說：“我們將考慮來自夥伴國家的一系列選擇，當然，其中許多選擇將來自直接關係。”
美國食品藥品監督管理局尚未授權阿斯利康疫苗在美國使用。
拜登政府在三月份表示，它將向加拿大和墨西哥運送大約400萬劑該英國製藥商的疫苗，並且現在承受著越來越大的壓力，要求擴大與印度和其他國家的庫存共享。
印度已經成為大流行的最新中心，威脅要淹沒其醫療保健系統。
阿斯利康（AstraZeneca）發言人無法評論這項安排的具體細節，但稱該劑量是其對美國政府供應承諾的一部分。她說：“將美國供應物資運送到其他國家的決定是由美國政府決定的。”
美聯社週一早些時候報導，這些劑量將在FDA批准後的未來幾個月內分攤。
美聯社報導說，這些劑量是在巴爾的摩的Emergent BioSolutions工廠進行的，該工廠因在FDA檢查期間發現的一連串清潔和製造問題而受到嚴厲批評。
在一批強生疫苗被阿斯利康注射液中的成分污染破壞後，阿斯利康不再在那家工廠生產疫苗。
強生公司目前正在緊急工廠監督其疫苗的生產
US to share up to 60 mln AstraZeneca vaccine doses globally -White House
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the United States would release the doses to other countries as they become available.
By REUTERS
APRIL 27, 2021 00:48

The logo of AstraZeneca is seen on medication packages in a pharmacy in London
(photo credit: REUTERS)
Advertisement
WASHINGTON - The United States will start to share up to 60 million doses of AstraZeneca Plc's coronavirus vaccine with other countries as soon as the next few weeks, the White House said on Monday.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the United States would release the doses to other countries as they become available.
She said there could be 10 million doses cleared for export "in coming weeks." About 50 million more doses are currently being produced and could ship in May and June.
"Right now we have zero doses available of AstraZeneca," Psaki said, noting that US regulators still need to review the quality of those already produced.
Psaki said the Biden administration is still deciding what the process will be to determine where and how it will share the vaccine.
"We will consider a range of options from our partner countries and, of course, much of that will be through direct relationships," she said.
The AstraZeneca vaccine has not yet been authorized for US use by the Food and Drug Administration.
The Biden administration in March said it would send roughly 4 million doses of the British drugmaker's vaccine to Canada and Mexico, and is under growing pressure now to expand sharing of its stockpile with India and other countries.
India has become the latest epicenter of the pandemic, threatening to overwhelm its healthcare system.
An AstraZeneca spokeswoman could not comment on specifics of the arrangement, but said the doses were part of its supply commitments to the US government. "Decisions to send US supply to other countries are made by the US government," she said.
The Associated Press earlier on Monday reported the doses would be shared in coming months following their clearance by the FDA.
The AP reported that the doses were made at the Emergent BioSolutions facility in Baltimore, which came under harsh criticism for a long list of cleanliness and manufacturing problems found during an FDA inspection.
AstraZeneca is no longer making vaccine at that plant after a batch of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine was ruined by contamination with ingredients from the AstraZeneca shot.
J&J is now overseeing production of its vaccine at the Emergent plant
Labor candidate Nachman Shai finally approved to enter Israel
Likud: Shai "complained for PR points" instead of going through the system.
By GIL HOFFMAN, SARAH BEN-NUN
APRIL 28, 2021 00:00

Nachman Shai
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)
Advertisement
Former Labor MK Nachman Shai was approved on Wednesday to enter Israel from the US, ending his long battle to come home despite the lockdown on Ben-Gurion Airport.
"The government surrendered a moment before our petition to the High Court of Justice," Shai said. "Thousands of Israelis are waiting to enter Israel. They should be permitted, pending health limitations. They should be permitted to participate in the election and vote."

Shai said what he went through reflected the way the government handled the coronavirus crisis: "with governmental blunders, bureaucracy, indifferent and unable to understand."
Likud sources responded that instead of following proper procedure, Shai "complained to score PR points."
Shai applied to return to Israel because he is the eighth candidate on the Labor Party list. He bought a ticket to leave the US last week, specifically doing it through the standard channels. He is set to fly home on Friday.
A special committee in charge of deciding exceptions to the travel ban rejected him twice but never told him that there is another committee for appeals.
“I don’t want to use proteksia,” Shai said, using a Hebrew word for personal connections. “I want to get in because it’s right to let me in. I’m not a judoka or a singer. I’m an ordinary citizen, and it is wrong that I am not getting answers.”
Since leaving the Knesset two years ago, Shai has taught at Emory University in Atlanta and now at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.
Despite not entering the country to campaign, he still won the fourth slot available to a man on the Labor list in the February 1 Labor primary. Due to Labor leader Merav Michaeli’s insistence on alternating between women and men, he is eighth on the list, despite getting more votes than controversial seventh candidate Ibtisam Mara’ana.